作者:Eugene Chausovsky
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:Jul 31, 2023
摘要:
台灣卓越的晶片製造能力,使其在美中科技戰中扮演關鍵角色。日本、尼德蘭和台灣加入了美國的行列,封殺中國獲得頂尖晶片和晶片製造設備的管道,以限制中國在技術方面的快速成長。作為報復,中國阻礙了半導體製造所需的關鍵礦物之出口。雖然目前美國及其聯盟相對來說較占優勢,但台灣很容易受到中國原物料出口限制、軍事入侵和經濟封鎖的影響。除此之外,台灣的能源也很容易被中國操縱或切斷。
台灣能源的脆弱性
- 台灣大部分的電力需求皆仰賴進口天然氣和煤炭。而台灣最大的半導體製造商台積電,就需要至少6%的台灣總能源。
- 台灣是一個嚴重仰賴海上航線進出口能源的島國。因此中國會定期進行封鎖演習,限制台灣獲取能源的管道。
- 目前台灣的進口煤炭與天然氣多來自於美澳等理念相近國家。但從˙這些國家運輸能源至台灣至少需要30天,這可能會限制台灣進口能源的能力。
- 台灣也會從俄羅斯進口煤炭和天然氣,但俄羅斯是中國的親密盟友和主要能源進口國。若有必要,俄羅斯可能會切斷其對台灣的能源供應,就如同其在俄烏戰爭對歐盟的行動一樣。
- 台灣的其他能源供應國,例如卡達和印尼,也都與中國有密切的貿易投資關係。這些國家可能會站在中國那邊,放大台灣的能源弱點。
- 台灣內部的電力供應和消費問題也加劇了台灣的能源安全問題。隨著半導體產業的擴張,台灣必須要想辦法找尋更大且更多樣化的能源來源。除此之外,台灣現在正在試圖淘汰核能,卻又還無法達到其可再生能源的目標。
Summary:
Due to its unrivaled chipmaking capabilities, Taiwan is critical in the US-China technology competition. Japan, the Netherlands, and Taiwan joined the US's effort to restrict China's access to advanced chips and chipmaking equipment to stop China's technological advancement. China impeded the exports of critical minerals for semiconductor manufacturing in retaliation. Although the US and its coalition retain an advantage in the current contest, Taiwan is prone to Chinese raw material export restrictions, military invasion, and economic blockade. Further, Taiwan's energy supply is vulnerable to China's exploitation.
Taiwan's Energy Vulnerability
- Taiwan relies on gas and coal imports to sustain most of its electricity needs. TSMC, Taiwan's largest semiconductor fabricator, requires at least 6% of Taiwan's total energy.
- Taiwan is an island that relies on maritime routes for energy imports. China has conducted periodic blockade drills to impede Taiwan's energy access.
- Taiwan imported most of its coal and gas from friendly partners such as Australia and the US. However, energy shipments from these countries to Taiwan take at least 30 days, which may constrain Taiwan's energy access.
- Taiwan also imported coal and gas from Russia, China's close ally and major importer. Russia may cut Taiwan's energy supply if necessary, as demonstrated against the EU in the Ukrainian Crisis.
- Taiwan's other energy providers, such as Qatar and Indonesia, have close trade and investment ties with China. They may side with China to exploit Taiwan's energy vulnerabilities.
- Taiwan also has domestic electricity provision and consumption problems that exacerbate its energy security. Taiwan must look for larger and more diversified energy sources, given its semiconductor industry will consume more electricity as it expands. Further, Taiwan cannot meet its renewable energy targets while trying to phase out nuclear energy.