作者：Jim Mitre and Ylber Bajraktari
來源：RAND Corporation
日期：Aug 24, 2023

摘要：
雖然中國對於是否要入侵台灣持保留態度，但習近平已經下令要求解放軍要在2027年前準備好攻台行動的規劃。雖然經過多次美國安排多次演習後發現美國國防部可能無法成功保衛台灣或頂多慘勝，但是美國國防部攜手蘭德公司進行了不少技術和作戰創新之研討，並付諸模擬後，仍有積極的前景可供參考與努力。

積極的前景

  • 美國及其盟國軍隊可以透過對現有技術進行創新來提高自身能力。
  • 若說到能與中國分庭抗禮且具可行性的方案，其中最有希望的是美國國防部與其合作夥伴之間的資訊共享。
  • 私營科技公司可能會在軍事行動中提供美國政府強力的支持。

嚇阻的更佳解

  • 干擾中國的殺傷鏈
    • 多域無人機模擬器可以混淆中國的戰區意識，欺騙分析人員。
    • 將誘餌警報系統進行算法優化可以在友軍被中國監視時發出警報，並通知友軍採舉適當的反制措施。
    • 智慧水雷可以成為具威脅性的防禦障礙物，並且重新定位後摧毀中國船隻。
  • YESFORN態勢感知系統
    • 即時翻譯解決方案可以彌合美國和台灣之間的通訊差異，並幫助軍事人員識別和翻譯各種方言和專用術語。
    • 特殊作戰圖像使美國及其合作夥伴能夠共享和協調資訊，制定更好的作戰計劃。
    • 共享雲端基礎設施簡化了美台之間的數據共享模式。
  • 增強邊緣戰術優勢
    • 將多個網路整合成單一設備，並加入網路安全措施，提高分散或移動時的指揮與控制能力。
    • 集成作戰網路可以創建一個全面互相操作的網路，利用所有可用連結減少通訊干擾。
    • 專門的戰時通訊應用程式讓平民也可以為軍方提供情報和額外的人力資源。
Summary：

Although a Taiwan invasion is not certain, Xi ordered the PLA to prepare for a successful operation by 2027. However, after several wargames, the US DoD may not defend Taiwan successfully or prevail at a high cost. Yet, there are some positive outlooks after the DoD and RAND Corporation conducted a wargame emphasizing technology and innovation to solve operational problems.

Positive Outlooks

  • The US and its allies' military can enhance their ability by adopting innovation in existing capabilities.
  • Proposals related to information sharing between DoD and its partners show the greatest promise in getting the upper hand over China and are more feasible.
  • Private tech companies will likely support the US government in military operations.

Solutions for better deterrence

  • Disrupting China's kill chain
    • Multi-domain drone mimics can confuse China's warzone awareness and deceive its analysts.
    • Algorithmic optimization of decoys alerts friendly units when they are under Chinese surveillance and informs them to use suitable countermeasures.
    • "Smart" sea mines can be menacing defense obstacles and repositioned to destroy Chinese ships.
  • "YESFORN" Situational Awareness
    • Real-time translation solutions can bridge communication differences between the US and Taiwan. It can also help military personnel identify and translate various dialects and jargon.
    • "Uncommon operating picture" enables the US and its partners to share and coordinate information to formulate better war plans.
    • Share cloud infrastructure simplifies data sharing between the US and Taiwan.
  • Empowering the Tactical Edge
    • Fitting multiple networks into a single device with cybersecurity measures allows robust command and control while dispersed and moving.
    • An integrated warfighter network creates a fully interoperable network that utilizes all available links and reduces communication disruption.
    • Specialized combat mobile application allows civilians to provide intel and extra manpower to the Taiwanese military.
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