作者：Mike Gallagher and Aaron MacLean
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jul 26, 2023

摘要：

自朝鮮停戰協定簽署後已經過去70年。美國似乎忽視了戰爭中的重要教訓，而中國卻與美國僵持不下，以紀念自己的參戰經歷。習近平曾多次將朝鮮戰爭與當前的中美緊張局勢進行類比，並從戰爭遺留的教訓為基礎，設計其整個政治準備與計畫。 美國必須喚醒朝鮮戰爭的痛苦記憶，並根據當前的地緣政治環境重新詮釋這些記憶，為保衛台灣做準備。

教訓1：美國必須確保其威懾力和充分的軍事準備。

  • 1950年，史達林在解讀艾奇遜的言論後批准金日成入侵南方，認為美國不會再保護南韓。
  • 雖然杜魯門決定打著聯合國的旗號干預，但二戰結束後，美國的整體軍事能力每況愈下，導致失敗。
  • 將這一教訓應用到美國官方對保衛台灣的立場上：
    • 美國目前的國防開支較少，缺乏新兵，軍隊沒有做好打大型戰爭的準備。
    • 美國在捍衛台灣方面的「戰略模糊性」令人困惑，因為拜登的幕僚對於他捍衛台灣的承諾反覆無常。此外，美國也沒有投資足夠資源來加強台灣的防禦能力。

教訓2：政治與戰爭密切相關

  • 雖然聯合國部隊在戰爭初期遭受挫折，但他們的部隊還是穩健地擊退了共產黨的攻勢。
  • 聯合國部隊完全有能力贏得戰爭，但慘重的損失和國際壓力迫使杜魯門與共產黨談判，最終達成停火協議。
  • 雖然共產黨同意談判，但他們拒絕了聯合國代表團的任何提議，並堅持聯合國部隊要再向南撤退，使這場戰爭又延長了兩年。
  • 這表明，共產黨在接近失敗時，竟能成功地將損失轉化為談判桌上的微弱勝利。
  • 共產黨在聯合國反攻暫停期間強化了前線，成功抵擋聯合國在戰事恢復後進一步向北推進的能力。
  • 共產黨甚至指責聯合國代表不守信用，操縱全球輿論對聯合國對待戰俘的態度看法，導致和談暫停。
  • 美國應該意識到中共會不惜利用政治戰爭和歪曲事實來達成其目標。

Lesson 3: 過度自我克制可能會使衝突進一步升級。

  • 杜魯門拒絕了麥克阿瑟將軍攻擊中國，利用核武器進一步升級韓戰之提議，導致韓戰延長。
  • 與此相反，杜魯門的繼任者艾森豪威爾發出了戰爭升級的訊號，迫使共產黨簽署了停戰協定。
  • 1954-1955 年台灣海峽危機期間，艾森豪不顧美國盟友的不滿，採取了類似的策略。然而，艾森豪威爾成功地在情況失控之前制止了危機。
  • 美國是唯一能動員足夠力量來阻止或贏得一場戰爭的國家，如果升級衝突能有助於避免戰爭，美國不應該猶豫。
Summary：

Seventy years have passed since the signing of the Korean War armistice. The US seems to ignore the key lessons from the war, but China commemorates its participation in it by holding the US to a stalemate. Xi had drawn several analogies from the Korean War with the current US-China tensions and devised political preparation from the war legacies. The US must exhume painful memories from the Korean War and reinterpret them to the current geopolitical climate, especially when preparing for the defense of Taiwan.

Lesson 1: The US must ensure credible deterrence and sufficient military preparedness.

  • In 1950, Stalin approved Kim Il Sung to invade the South after interpreting Acheson's remark that the US would not defend South Korea anymore.
  • Although Truman decided to intervene under the UN banner, US's overall military capability deteriorated after the end of WWII, resulting in defeats.
  • Applying the lesson to the US's official stance on defending Taiwan:
    • The US spends less on defense currently and lacks new military recruits, making its military unprepared for a major war.
    • The US's "strategic ambiguity" in defending Taiwan is confusing as Biden's staff often rebuffs his promise to defend Taiwan. Further, the US did not invest enough to fortify Taiwan's defensive capability.

Lesson 2: Politics and war are deeply intertwined.

  • Although the UN forces faced setbacks at the beginning of the war, their forces steadily pushed the communist offensive back.
  • The UN was well positioned to win the war, but heavy losses and international pressure forced Truman to negotiate a ceasefire with the communists.
  • Although the communists agreed to negotiate, they refused any proposals from the UN delegation and insisted the UN forces withdraw further south, prolonging the war for another two years.
  • It shows that the communists, on the brink of defeat, managed to transform their losses into a marginal win on the negotiation table.
  • The communists fortified their frontline during the pause in the UN's counteroffensive, which impeded the UN's ability to push further North when the battle resumed.
  • The communists even accused UN representatives of bad faith and manipulated global public opinion on the UN's treatment of POWs, leading to a pause in peace talks.
  • The US should be aware of CCP's willingness to use political warfare and distort the truth to advance its goals.

Lesson 3：Excessive self-restraint can further escalate the conflict.

  • Truman renounced General MacArthur's proposal of escalating the conflict by attacking China and using nuclear weapons, protracting the Korean War.
  • In contrast, Truman's successor, Eisenhower, signaled the possibility of escalating the war, which compelled the communists to sign the war armistice.
  • Eisenhower employed similar tactics during the 1954-55 Taiwan Strait Crisis despite discomfort from US allies. However, Eisenhower managed to stop the crisis before it spiraled out of control.
  • The US is the only nation that can mobilize enough force to prevent or win a war, and it should not hesitate to escalate conflict if it helps to avert wars.
 
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