FA: 大國競爭的幻覺 (Part 3)



作者：Jude Blanchette and Christopher Johnstone
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jul 24, 2023
 

美國必須堅持一些原則，才能更靈活地航行於國際體系中：

  • 美國在協調對華政策，或者向合作夥伴提出零和選擇時必須要更謹慎小心。讓合作夥伴有機會確定與中國的關係，避免損害共同利益。
  • 許多國家支持台灣海峽的和平與穩定，但不願提供直接的政治或物質支援給台灣。
    • 華盛頓必須繼續支持台灣抵制來自中國的衝突或脅迫，同時增加台灣的安全和國際機會。
    • 在台灣問題上，美國必須謹慎地在「對北京的好戰行為採取堅決行動」與「合作夥伴的核心利益」之間維持平衡。
  • 將夥伴從關係從安全領域擴展到經濟領域
    • 許多國家對美國重新關注印太安全表示讚同，但美國必須在共同經濟議題上付出更多努力。
    • 美國應重申其對多邊貿易體系的承諾，與其合作夥伴重新協商有意義的市場准入協議。
    • 美國不能強迫合作夥伴犧牲與中國的經濟關係，但又不提供可靠的經濟替代方案。
  • 協助盟國和潛在夥伴調整外交政策，以應對其國內民意情形。
    • 一些國家的領導人或官員私下支持美國遏制中國惡性行為的行動。但實際上，如果這些國家的領導人公開表示支持美國，就很容易遭到中國政府的報復。
    • 美國必須加強其夥伴對抗中國的經濟壓力，並監控小國可能要面對的潛在風險。

The US must adhere to some principles to navigate better in the flexible international system:

  • Be cautious and detailed when presenting partners with zero-sum choices when coordinating on China policy. Give partners a chance to define their relations with China to prevent damage to mutual interests.
  • Many countries approve of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait but are reluctant to provide direct political or material support for Taiwan.
    • Washington must continue supporting Taiwan in deterring conflict and Chinese coercion while increasing Taiwan's security and international opportunities.
    • The US must balance carefully between resolute actions on Beijing's belligerence with the core interest of its partners on the Taiwan issue.
  • Expand its partnership from security to economic aspects.
    • Many countries applauded US's renewed focus on Indo-Pacific security, but it must dedicate more effort to mutual economic agenda.
    • The US should renew its commitments to multilateral trading systems and renegotiate meaningful market-access agreements with its partners.
    • The US cannot force partners to sacrifice their economic relations with China without offering reliable economic alternatives.
  • Assist allies and potential partners in calibrating their foreign policy to reflect their domestic realities.
    • Some leaders or officials privately support US's actions in restraining China's malignant behavior. However, in reality, these countries are prone to Beijing's retaliation if their leaders go public on supporting the US.
    • The US must strengthen its partners against Chinese economic coercion and monitor the potential risks in smaller countries.
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