When Russia began its Ukraine invasion, many experts predicted Russia would gain a swift victory, and Ukraine could not retaliate even with modern Western weapons. However, the current situation is otherwise. Russia suffered heavy losses, and Ukraine gradually regained its lost territories by fighting with determination and smart. The Russo-Ukraine War prompts experts to reevaluate warfare in general, especially in military structure, morale, and industrial base. Hopefully, experts can learn from the lessons of the war and evaluate the possible US-China war over Taiwan.

System and Shocks

• Experts evaluated the war's outcome based on the type and quantity of Russia and Ukraine's weapons. Russia has a monumental lead over Ukraine regarding the amount and technology of firepower before the war. The US even regarded Russia as a peer in military capability.
• However, the war shattered the experts' expectations:
  • Russia's equipment was badly maintained or degraded by corruption.
  • Its forces were unprepared for tank warfare.
  • Russia failed to operate advanced systems effectively or coordinate its attacks, losing prized systems.
• While most experts emphasized the systems used during the war, they discounted logistics, which Russia also failed.
• Experts also ignored ammunition replenishing capacity and warring parties' economic-industrial strength, which are crucial in the war. Both Russia and Ukraine depleted their inventory and relied mainly on external sources to sustain their effort.

The Human Factor

• Besides good logistics and strong economies, the skill and determination of combatants are factors for winning a war.
• Although it is unknown whether there are ethnic divisions in Eastern Ukraine or how high is the morale of Russian troops, Ukrainians have shown strong determination to fight the invaders.
• Ukrainians are motivated to learn to use advanced NATO systems and integrate them into their operation.
• Ukraine's leadership is comfortable decentralizing command to lower-level officials, contrasting with its rigid Russian counterpart.
• As a result, Ukraine's dedication and talent impaired Russia's combat ability, allowing it to have the advantage.

Applying the Lessons

• The Russo-Ukraine War shows that many less-explored variables could determine the outcomes of a war.
• The US and China must fight a protracted war for the potential conflict over Taiwan, which will be decided by their ability to operate complex military systems and the resoluteness of their forces. Therefore, they should think carefully before heading into conflict.