FA: 大國競爭的幻覺 (Part 2)


作者：Jude Blanchette and Christopher Johnstone
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jul 24, 2023

理念相近的盟友

  • 遏制中國入侵台灣或在中國發動攻擊時保衛台灣：
    • 韓國與日本也很容易受到中國飛彈的攻擊，因此美國必須開發其他軍事基地。
    • 美國可以嘗試在東南亞和太平洋島嶼建立近海基地的機會。
    • 美國已經與新加坡和巴布亞紐幾內亞簽訂了協議與合作夥伴關係，這表明美國有必要實現多樣化。
  • 解決技術供應鏈的漏洞：
    • 雖然美國仍然主導著整個供應鏈，但中小型國家則負責供應半導體生產的關鍵設備或成分。
    • 美國必須與這些國家合作，敦促他們遵守美國的規定，限制中國在關鍵技術方面的能力。
    • 美國可以與荷蘭、日本、南韓和台灣進一步協調，以確保半導體供應鏈的安全。
    • 美國可以試著與澳洲、印尼、其他南美或非洲國家建立夥伴關係，以減少美國在關鍵礦產方面對中國的依賴。
  • 美國可以與北約和七國集團等傳統聯盟建立更深入的關係。
  • 然而，美國必須依靠不同規模的國家和非國家行為體才能在當前的大國競爭中獲勝。因此，美國的成功取決於華盛頓影響這些行為體並與之結盟的能力。
  • 不少美國的潛在合作夥伴都與中國有深厚的經濟和外交關係。因此，美國必須認識到這一現實，謹慎耐心地處理與這些國家的關係。
  • 除了美國，中國其實也面臨類似的困境。中國正在謹慎但尷尬地追求與歐洲國家更深入的關係。

Looking for Like-Minded Allies

  • Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or defending Taiwan if China attacks:
    • The US must look for alternatives for military bases beyond South Korea and Japan because they are prone to Chinese missile attacks.
    • The US can explore offshore basing opportunities in Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands.
    • The US already has agreements or partnerships with Singapore and Papua New Guinea, signifying the need to diversify.
  • Addressing vulnerabilities in the technological supply chain:
    • Although the US still dominates the overall supply chain, small and medium powers supply key equipment or ingredients for semiconductor production.
    • The US must cooperate with these countries such that they will comply with the US to limit China's capability in critical technologies.
    • The US can coordinate deeper with the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to secure the semiconductor supply chain.
    • The US can explore partnerships with Australia, Indonesia, or other South American or African countries to reduce the dependence on China for critical minerals.
  • The US can foster deeper relations with traditional coalitions, such as NATO and G-7.
  • Yet, the US must rely on state and non-state actors of all sizes to prevail in the current great power competition. Therefore, its success depends on Washington's ability to influence and align with these actors.
  • The US's potential partners have profound economic and diplomatic ties with China. Therefore, the US must realize this reality and navigate relations with these countries carefully and patiently.
  • Like the US, China also faces similar predicaments and awkwardly pursues better relations with European countries.
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