FA: 大國競爭的幻覺 (Part 1)


作者：Jude Blanchette and Christopher Johnstone
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jul 24, 2023

摘要：
大國競爭決定了當前的國際秩序，美國和俄羅斯似乎將世界劃分為冷戰式的集團。然而，將美中競逐歸結為冷戰，其實是太過簡單也過時的分類方式，尤其是當美中之間的相互依賴性、中等強權、小國和其他非國家行為體在衝突中扮演重要角色時。
 

美中大國競逐的本質

  • 美中大國競爭並不只是兩個大國之間的競爭，也不是民主和專制陣營之間的意識形態競爭。
  • 這種競爭更像是不同聯盟或團體之間的競爭，這些聯盟或團體各有不同的想法。它可以聚集志同道合的盟友，也可能聚集很多為了「權宜行事」而結盟的夥伴。
  • 美國可能需要與不認同美國利益或價值觀的行為體合作。如果美國能很好地管理其合作伙伴的期望，並分享明確的目標，那麼美國就能在追求自身利益的同時，建立一個強大而穩定的國際秩序。
  • 美國必須改變其外交戰略和思維模式，更關注中小國家，更從容地對待「權宜行事」聯盟，允許各國根據不同議題有更多的自主權加入或拒絕美國。
  • 拜登政府有效地實行務實外交。一些政策制定者希望更強調單邊主義或零和競爭，要求盟友選擇立場，但這可能會讓中國有漏洞可趁，孤立美國。

Summary：

Great-power competitions define the current international order and major powers, the US and Russia, seemingly divided the world into Cold-War-esque blocs. However, framing the US-China competition as a Cold War is oversimplified and outdated, especially when the dependencies of the US or China, middle and small powers, and other non-state actors have substantial roles in the conflict.

The Nature of the US-China Great Power Competition

  • The US-China great power competition is neither a simple competition between two great powers nor an ideological contest between democratic and authoritarian blocs.
  • The competition is more of competition among different coalitions or groupings of alliances that differ depending on the agenda. It may assemble like-minded allies or gather marriage-of-convenience partners.
  • The US may need to cooperate with actors who do not share US's interests or values. If the US can manage the expectations of its partners well and share clear objectives, the US can pursue its interest while building a resilient and stable international order.
  • The US must change its diplomatic strategy and mindset by paying more attention to medium and small powers, being more comfortable with marriage-of-convenience coalitions, and allowing countries more autonomy to join or refuse its cause based on different issues.
  • The Biden administration effectively practices pragmatic diplomacy. Some policymakers hope for a more unilateralist or zero-sum competition and demand allies pick sides, but it may allow China to exploit the cracks and isolate the US.
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