FA：美中關係—不抱太大的期望值也是一種美德(Part 2)


作者：Ryan Hass
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jun 28, 2023
 

相同目標，不同手段

  • 美國和中國需要一個有利於兩國關係的共同進程，雖然無法減輕兩國之間的戰略競爭，但卻能讓他們攜手解決共同的安全問題，如中東和平、能源和糧食安全。
  • 美國和中國都意識到，俄烏危機最終將在談判桌上解決，兩國都會在烏克蘭的戰後重建中發揮重要作用。
  • 讓中國在全球事務中承擔更大責任，能讓習近平實現他作為一個全球領袖和國家利益的野心。
  • 美國和中國政府還希望重新調整國際宏觀經濟格局和發展中國家的債務問題。北京也很歡迎美國分享有關債務重組和減免方面的專業知識。

耐心的美德

  • 白宮希望國會利用外交努力減輕美中關係的緊張局勢。
    • 共和黨人將疲於應對川普的法律問題，他們可能希望與他保持距離。
    • 與其他經濟體相比，美國經濟相對來說比較健康。拜登可以在保持戰略競爭的同時，在對華外交上更加積極、自信和溫和。
    • 美國的盟友希望華盛頓繼續保持外交作為應對中國問題的選項，雖然中國並不樂見這種發展。美國希望透過外交手段修補兩國關係，能向世界證明美國一直在追求穩定的大國關係，並使其盟國更積極地與華盛頓協調各種對中問題。
  • 即使改善美中關係之路可能會有很多挑戰，甚至可能會失敗，但拜登政府在促進國內穩定和改善與盟國協調方面處於有利地位。因此，美國可以努力降低與中國發生衝突的風險，並要求中國承擔更大的全球責任。美國應該要預期這種進展會很緩慢，但最終必能取得豐碩成果。

Same Goals, Different Means

  • The US and China need a shared agenda that would benefit their relationship. Although it will not alleviate their strategic competition, it will address mutual security issues such as peace in the Middle East, energy, and food security.
  • The US and China realized the Ukrainian Crisis would be decided on the negotiation table, and they would play vital roles in Ukraine's post-war rebuilding.
  • Allowing China to take greater responsibility for global issues enables Xi to materialize his ambition as a global leader and national interests.
  • The US and Beijing are also interested in realigning international macroeconomics and debt issues in developing countries. Beijing would welcome US's expertise in debt restructuring and relief.

The Virtues of Patience

  • The White House expects Congress would welcome alleviating the US-China relations through diplomacy.
    • Republicans would be exhausted from dealing with Trump's legal problems and may want to distance themselves from him.
    • The US economy is stronger and healthier compared to other economies. Biden could be more proactive, confident, and moderate in diplomacy with China while maintaining strategic competition.
    • US allies hope Washington would keep diplomacy as an option to manage relations with China, although the latter is unwilling. By showing eagerness to mend relations through diplomacy, the US can prove to the world that it pursues stable great power relations and allow its allies to coordinate better with Washington on issues regarding China.
  • Although hopes to mend relations with China may falter, the Biden administration is in a strong position in fostering domestic stability and improving coordination with allies. Therefore, the US can dedicate efforts to reduce conflict risks with China and asking China to take greater global responsibility. The US should expect the progress would be slow, but it will be fruitful.
 
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