FA: 美中關係—不抱太大的期望值也是一種美德


作者：Christopher Sabatini
來源：Foreign Policy
日期：Jul 24, 2023

摘要：
經濟和個人制裁是西方政府在21世紀時最常用的外交政策工具，多數獨裁國家都成為美國制裁目標，甚至包括俄羅斯和中國等大國也都逃不了被制裁的命運。美國需要擔心的是，他們越來越多地使用制裁會促使專制國家組成反西方制裁聯盟，從而改寫全球金融體系的規則。

問題所在

  • 被美國制裁的國家會尋找漏洞，規避制裁或創造替代的貨幣和金融體系，以替代美元優勢和西方的金融體系。
  • 作為美國制裁的受害者，中國對全球經濟有著巨大的影響力和外交影響力。它將自己塑造成發展中國家，同時也是其他制裁受害者的經濟、外交和道義盟友。
  • 中國大力推動人民幣國際化和跨境支付系統，以推動去美元化。
  • 中國還為其他制裁對象提供金融和市場安排，這對西方聯盟構成了系統性風險。
  • 一些未受制裁的發展中國家表示有意加入中國去美元化的努力，創建非美元交易貨幣體系。
  • 美國必須認識到，他們對制裁的偏好可能會損害其全球經濟和外交實力。

不良債務的問題

  • 當國家拖欠貸款時，大型機構貸款人會尋求在二級市場上轉嫁其債務。如果美國制裁相關國家，西方投資者將不願購買不良債券。而美國的對手或敵對勢力可能會介入購買這些債務。
  • 委內瑞拉的情況就是一個很好的案例。美國給了對手機會，讓他們對委內瑞拉的未來有發言權，並阻止委內瑞拉的民主化。這也助長了地緣政治威脅，尤其是當委內瑞拉擁有大量能源資產時，美國的對手就可以控制全球能源供應。

美國的觀點

  • 美國不會放棄將制裁作為外交工具。然而，政策制定者必須確保未來的制裁是合理的，符合其目標，而且不會破壞美國的國家利益和全球利益。

Summary：
Economic and personal sanctions are Western governments' preferred foreign policy tools in the 21st century. Most autocratic governments are the target of US sanctions, even major actors such as Russia and China. The US needs to worry that its increasing use of sanctions drives the autocratic countries to form an anti-Western sanctions coalition that would rewrite the rules of the global financial system.
 

The Problems

  • Countries sanctioned by the US will look for loopholes to bypass the sanctions or create alternatives to replace the dollar dominance and Western financial systems.
  • China, a victim of US sanctions, has a massive influence on the global economy and diplomatic clout. It shaped itself as an economic, diplomatic, and moral ally of developing countries, especially among other sanctions victims.
  • China pushed for de-dollarization by encouraging the international usage of the Renminbi and the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System.
  • China also has financial and market arrangements for other sanction targets, posing systemic risks for the Western coalition.
  • Some non-sanctioned developing countries signaled their intention to join China's efforts in de-dollarization and create a non-US dollar trading currency.
  • The US must recognize that its preference for sanctions may hurt its global economic and diplomatic power.

The Problems with Distressed Debts

  • Large institutional lenders will seek to offload their debt on secondary markets when countries default on their loans. Western investors would be reluctant to purchase distressed bonds if the US sanctions the related countries. Further, US adversaries or antagonistic actors may step in to buy those defaulted debts.
  • The Venezuela case illustrates the above situation. The US gave an opportunity to its rivals to have a say in Venezuela's future and prevent the democratization of Venezuela. It also fueled geopolitical threats, especially when Venezuela has large energy assets, allowing US adversaries a grip over global energy supplies.

What's the take for the US?

  • The US will not abandon using sanctions as a diplomatic tool. Yet, policymakers must ensure that future sanctions are rational, adhere to their goals, and do not undermine national and global interests.
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