The China Project: 美國對半導體出口的控制可能反讓中國獲得優勢(Part 2)

作者:Kyriakos Petrakakos
來源:The China Project
日期:Jun 15, 2023


  • 傳統上而言,中國的晶片製造商一旦預期他們將面臨限制性貿易措施後,會囤貨一些外國製造的WFE。然而,當美國真的實施出口管制時,中國當地對本土WFE的需求急劇上升,因為它們是晶片製造商的唯一選擇。
  • 中國本土對代工企業的需求在出口管制之前已隱約可見,但在管制後快速飛漲成為了熱門趨勢,中國代工廠收入增長,等於國際代工廠的營收收縮,而且這一趨勢將繼續下去。
  • 出口限制使中國代工廠的生產量能提升,並快速累積技術能力經驗。
  • 雖然中國的開發能力仍然落後歐美,但美國的晶片管制政策其實也推動了中國半導體設備製造的改革。
  • 為了生產更小節點的先進晶片,晶片製造商需要ASML公司的EUV技術。ASML公司在1990年代末成功開發了EUV技術,並花20年時間使EUV技術商業化。
  • 中國的半導體設備製造商仍然落後至少10年。雖然他們也有可能可以趕得上尖端技術,但目前,中國缺乏有經驗的工程師和關鍵零件供應商來支持他們的發展。


  • 中國強調半導體的後端製程,但其設備製造能力與技術落後,市場份額也低於全球的OEMs。
  • 出口管制可能會推動中國代工廠的增長,但他們在半導體製程技術上仍存在很大差距。
  • 出口管制可能推動中國半導體自給自足,但目前它只限於普通商品的晶片。

Turning the Tide?

  • Traditionally, Chinese chipmakers amassed foreign-made WFE after predicting restrictive trade measures. However, when the US executed its export controls, local demand for indigenous WFE skyrocketed as they were the only option for the chipmakers.
  • The local demand for Chinese OEMs started before the export control but gained traction after the restriction. Chinese OEMs reported income growth, while global OEMs contracted, and the trend will continue.
  • The export restriction allows Chinese OEMs to increase production and gain experience in growing technological capabilities.
  • Although China still falls behind in the capabilities to develop mature nodes, it will drive the improvement of its semiconductor equipment manufacturing.
  • To produce advanced chips with smaller nodes, chip fabricators need EUV technology from ASML, which it developed in the late 1990s and took 20 years to make the EUV commercially viable.
  • China's semiconductor equipment makers still lag by at least ten years. Although they may catch up eventually, China lacks experienced engineers and suppliers for key parts to support their development.

The Takeaway

  • China emphasized the back-end of semiconductor manufacturing, but its equipment-making capacity is technologically backward and has a lower market share than global OEMs.
  • The export controls may drive the growth of Chinese OEMs, but they have a large gap in lithography techniques to catch up.
  • The export restriction may drive Chinese semiconductor self-sufficiency, but it will be limited to chips for general goods.