WPR: 台灣的命運並不取決於烏克蘭是否擊敗俄羅斯

作者:Paul Poast
來源:World Politics Review
日期:Jun 16, 2023



  • 如果俄羅斯保留其吞併的領土,它就無法忽視美國與其盟友給予的巨大軍事和經濟損失。
  • 對台灣的兩棲入侵極難執行。
  • 即使中國成功入侵,台灣的經濟基礎設施也會被摧毀,降低吞併台灣的價值。
  • 如果美國及其盟國決定保衛台灣,他們會透過制裁破壞解放軍並削弱中國經濟。


  • 冷戰時期的多米諾理論認為,任何陷入共產主義的國家都會刺激革命組織及其外部贊助者,使越來越多國家接連陷入共產主義思想中。
  • 美國為了防止共產主義在越南及其鄰國蔓延,發起了代價高昂的越南戰爭,但卻輸了,最終越南擁抱了共產主義。
  • 然而,共產主義意識形態只傳播到寮國,並不影響東南亞其他國家或其他美蘇代理戰爭。
  • 因此,俄烏戰爭的結果不會影響美國外交政策的成敗。


  • 在分析戰略互動時,「聲譽」在外交政策決策中的作用相對模糊。雖然美國在越南戰爭中失敗了,但這並沒有摧毀美國保衛西歐不受蘇聯侵犯的信念。
  • 一些國家可能會採取好戰的行動來捍衛自己的聲譽,但這是否會將其他國家捲入衝突還值得商榷。

Many policymakers and commentators related Ukraine's fate to Taiwan's survival. They also associated failure to help Ukraine or defend Taiwan with damage to US's reputation and credibility. However, those comments were exaggerated as failure to defeat Russia in Ukraine will not have such severe global consequences for the following reasons.

The quest for marginal annexation against a US partner could ruin its military and economy.

  • If Russia retained its annexed territories, it could not ignore the heavy losses to its military and economy, which the US and its allies can take credit for.
  • An amphibious invasion of Taiwan is extremely difficult to execute.
  • Even if China invaded successfully, Taiwan's economic infrastructure would be destroyed, making annexation of Taiwan less valuable.
  • If the US and its allies decide to defend Taiwan, it will devastate the PLA and weaken the Chinese economy through sanctions.

The "Domino Theory" will not affect the US foreign policy.

  • The Domino Theory from the Cold War era proposed that any countries falling into communism would spur revolutionary groups and their external sponsors, making countries fall into the communist ideology one by one.
  • The US fought the costly Vietnam War to prevent communism from spreading in Vietnam and its neighboring countries but lost, and Vietnam embraced communism.
  • However, the communist ideology only spread to Laos and does not affect other countries in Southeast Asia or other US-Soviet proxy wars.
  • Therefore, the outcome in Ukraine will not affect the success or failure of US foreign policy.

The concepts of "Reputation" and "Credibility" are logically questionable.

  • In analyzing strategic interaction, reputation has a vague role in foreign policy decisions. Although the US failed in the Vietnam War, it did not destroy US' conviction to defend Western Europe from the Soviet Union.
  • Some countries may act belligerently to defend their reputation, but it is debatable whether it will draw other countries into conflict.