FA: China’s Status Anxiety (Part 1)


作者：Rohan Mukherjee
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：May 19, 2023

摘要：
中國經常指責美國虛偽和雙重標準，因此，美國也不具正當性來譴責中國的類似行為。除了以安全和繁榮為主的大國政治以外，對國際秩序中地位的追求也可能會促使像中國這樣的新興崛起大國採取挑釁行為。中國希望自己能被其他國家承認為像美國一樣的大國，因此中國不能容忍其他大國可以違反國際公約，但中國卻被這些大國譴責不能做類似於他們的行動。然而，中國已經表現出願意與那些給予它與美國同等地位的國際機構合作之傾向，並會質疑會提出改革那些不認可中國行動的國際機構。因此，美國應該給予中國類似的國際地位又或，以獲得中國的合作，並維護國際秩序。
 

地位和修昔底德陷阱

  • 格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）修昔底德的陷阱忽略了一個面向，那就是地位。毋庸置疑，當崛起的大國變得足夠有威脅性，能挑戰當前大國所建立的國際秩序時，衝突就會發生。如果一個崛起的大國覺得自己在國際秩序中的合法地位一直被剝奪，那麼雖然他知道戰爭的代價和危險，他還是會冒險與大國開戰。
  • 大國操縱國際秩序或建立排他性的俱樂部，以維持其確保物質利益的特權地位，並吸引崛起的大國尋求加入這些俱樂部。
  • 從另一方面來看，如果該俱樂部允許崛起中大國加入，其排他性就會被稀釋。當越來越多國家獲得地位與權力，「地位」的價值也會下降。因此大部分的排他性俱樂部都不會願意給予崛起大國相應的國際秩序地位。
  • 然而，如果俱樂部對崛起中大國採取開放和公平的心態，允許它們提升地位，並給予一定機會讓崛起中大國領導國際組織，也許可以促進合作、和平的變革和約束。

Summary:
China often accused the US of hypocrisy and double standards; therefore, the US has no legitimacy to condemn China for acting similarly. Apart from great power politics of security and prosperity, the pursuit of status in the international order also drives a rising power like China to act belligerently. China hopes to be admitted as a great power like the US and cannot tolerate inequality when other great powers bend or break international conventions without allowing China to act similarly. Yet, China has shown tendencies to cooperate with international institutions that grant it the same rank as the US but will question or revolutionize those which does not. Thus, the US should give China status-based enticement to gain its cooperation and preserve the international order.
 

Status and Thucydides Trap

  • An overlooked aspect of Graham Allison's Thucydides trap is status. It is indisputable that conflict occurs when rising powers become threatening enough to challenge the international order set by current great powers. A rising power will risk going to war with great power if it is consistently denied its legitimate place in the international order, despite knowing the costs and dangers of war.
  • Great powers manipulate the international order or create exclusive clubs to maintain their privileged position of securing material benefits, driving rising powers to seek admission into the club.
  • On the other hand, if the clubs admitted rising powers, their exclusivity would be thinned. The value of status depreciates as more states obtain it. Therefore, clubs are reluctant to grant rising powers their place in the international order.
  • However, cooperation, peaceful changes, and restraints are possible if the clubs are open and fair for rising powers to move their ranks up and give them chances to lead the organization.
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