FA:要怎麼做才能在台海嚇阻中國(Part 2)

作者:David Sacks and Ivan Kanapathy
來源:Foreign Affairs
日期:Jun 15, 2023


  • 台灣和美國從俄烏戰爭中吸取了許多有關威懾戰略的經驗。台灣已開始改善其在民防抗敵和基礎建設韌性方面的缺陷,但在某些領域仍然脆弱,例如能源、食品、醫藥、彈藥和通訊。
  • 美國應與台灣進行聯合研究,了解其戰時生產能力、重要缺陷以及改善方法,以使台灣能夠在被中國入侵或封鎖的情況下,自給自足一段時間。
  • 台灣應該投資更有效且更經濟的防禦武器,同時改革其軍事指揮和控制結構,允許較低層級的軍事領袖做出戰術性決策。
  • 美國應邀請台灣參加雙邊和多邊演習,幫助全面培訓台灣的軍隊。
  • 美國必須讓北京相信,若北京真的下令入侵台灣,美國將會保護台灣。因此,美國必須重振其工業基礎,以確保其擁有足夠且適合於對抗中國的設備。
  • 美國必須加強其在印太地區的聯盟網路,以集體優勢對抗中國。


  • 基於中國目前的能力還有限,其無法使用武力馬上占領台灣。中國最近的挑釁是一種「切香腸戰術」,旨在建立新的規範來管理其周圍的水域,,並迫使美國退出第一島鏈。美國不能屈服於中國的壓力,應要繼續在國際法允許的水域行動。
  • 美國政策制定者必須避免做出支持台灣或放棄「一個中國」政策的象徵性姿態,因為這只會火上加油。美國必須向台灣和中國明確表示反對任何改變現狀的行為。
  • 美國及其印太盟友必須說服中國,使用武力要求台灣是不被接受的行為,並會對國際穩定造成損害。

Improving Taiwan's Deterrence

  • Taiwan and the US learn much about deterrence from the war in Ukraine. Taiwan has started overhauling its shortcomings in civilian resistance and infrastructure resilience, but it is still vulnerable in certain areas: energy, food, medical, munitions, and communication.
  • The US should conduct a joint study with Taiwan to understand its wartime production capability, critical deficiencies, and ways to improve it for Taiwan to sustain itself against a Chinese invasion or blockade for a period.
  • Taiwan should invest in defensive weapons that are more effective and economical. Taiwan should reform its military command and control structure, allowing lower-level military leaders to make tactical decisions.
  • The US should help train Taiwan's military comprehensively by inviting Taiwan to participate in bilateral and multilateral exercises.
  • The US must convince Beijing that it will defend Taiwan in case of an invasion. Consequently, the US must revive its industrial base to ensure it has sufficient and suitable equipment to combat China.
  • The US must strengthen its alliance network in the Indo-Pacific to have a collective advantage against China.

Deterrence by Other Means

  • China cannot take Taiwan by force based on its current capabilities. China's recent belligerence is a salami-slicing tactic to establish new norms to govern waters surrounding it and force the US out of the first island chain. The US cannot succumb to China's pressure and continue to operate in waters allowed by international law.
  • US policymakers must avoid making symbolic gestures that support Taiwan or abandon the "one China" policy, as it will add fuel to the fire. The US must make clear to Taiwan and China that it opposes any change to the status quo.
  • The US and its Indo-Pacific allies must convince China that using force to claim Taiwan is unacceptable and damaging to international stability.