FA: 要怎麼做才能在台海嚇阻中國(Part 1)


作者：David Sacks and Ivan Kanapathy
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jun 15, 2023

摘要：
過去，美中台三方之間一直透過新型外交關係、軍事威懾和自我克制等方式，成功維持台海和平。，然而，三方外交惡化、威懾能力逐漸減弱和中國對風險的容忍度不斷提高，導致了現在台灣海峽不穩定的狀態。習近平采取有計劃的對臺戰略，希望通過將其勢力擴散到台灣的方式，實現台海的和平統一。 然而，北京政府認為它對台灣的控制正在鬆動，因為台灣人越來越反對統一的想法，並對北京的和平意圖產生懷疑。美國必須接受其對中威懾失敗的事實，並採取更多措施提高台灣的防禦能力，阻止習近平在台灣海峽使用武力。
 

北京的「邊緣策略」

  • 習近平更願意升級軍事緊張局勢，因為它認為自己比對手有更高的利益不對稱性和風險承受能力。
  • 北京為了改變現狀，炫耀自己的軍事實力，進入台湾海峽的空防識別區。解放軍海軍也在台灣的毗連區外活動，凸顯台灣和美國未能阻止台海安全的惡化。
  • 中國侵蝕了台灣海峽事實上的分界線，甚至在2022年8月裴洛西訪台後直接否認分線的存在。
  • 中國可能利用灰色地帶戰法升級緊張局勢，挑釁台灣和美國在台灣海峽的正常行動。
  • 中國的邊緣政策策略起了作用，因為美國驚慌失措地豎起了護欄，開放了通訊，以防止台灣海峽的衝突，給了中國更多籌碼。
  • 這也標誌著美國必須更習慣和從容應對美中比起以往更加緊張的關係，以防止權力平衡進一步落入中國手中。美國必須向習近平明確地發出警告，進一步的挑釁將損害其其他核心利益。

Summary:
Taiwan Strait was peaceful due to creative diplomacy, military deterrence, and self-restraint from the US, China, and Taiwan. However, deteriorating diplomacy, waning deterrence, and increasing China's risk tolerance contribute to the current unstable state in Taiwan Strait. Xi practiced calculated aggression against Taiwan to shift the status quo in China's favor, hoping for peaceful reunification. Yet, the Beijing government believes its grasp on Taiwan is loosening as the Taiwanese increasingly reject the idea of reunification and are suspicious of Beijing's peaceful intentions. The US must accept that deterrence is failing and do more to improve Taiwan's defensive capabilities and dissuade Xi from using force in Taiwan Strait.
 

Brinkmanship in Beijing

  • Xi Jinping is more willing to escalate military tension because it assumes it has a better asymmetry of interest and higher risk tolerance than its rivals.
  • Beijing shows off its military strength and enters Taiwan's ADIZ in the Taiwan Strait to change the status quo. The PLA navy also operates outside Taiwan's contiguous zones, highlighting Taiwan's and the US's failure to prevent the deterioration of Taiwna's security.
  • China eroded the de facto demarcation line in Taiwan Strait and even denied its existence after Peolsi's visit in August 2022.
  • China may use lawfare in gray zone areas to escalate tensions or provoke Taiwan and the US in the Taiwan Strait.
  • China's strategy of brinkmanship worked as the US panicked to erect guardrails and open lines of communication to prevent conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, giving China leverage.
  • It also signifies the US must be more tolerant and comfortable with greater US-China tensions to prevent the balance of power from falling further into China's hands. The US must war Xi clearly that further provocations will undermine his other core interests.
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