Brookings: 拜登是如何「解凍」美中關係


作者：Ryan Hass
來源：Brookings Institution
日期：May 23, 2023

摘要：

中美關係極有可能在2023年回溫。此前雙方甚至已經準備好進行高層會談，以管理衝突風險和保持開放的溝通管道，卻因中國間諜氣球入侵美國領空的事件而受到阻礙。從那時起，美中關係越趨惡化，雙方只顧著指責對方不願談判或無視其國家利益。。比較樂觀的觀點指出，基於雙方各自的國家利益與動機，美中遲早會破冰，畢竟美國希望能夠緩解緊張的局勢，更可靠地與中國競爭並防止衝突，而中國則希望他們能夠紓解國內問題，同時減緩其與他國外交的緊繃關係。若是如此，那麼也是有幾個方法可以確保雙方進行具建設性和有效的對話。
 

  • 美國可以重新安排考量其與中國在正式外交與二軌外交的順序，防止公開爭吵，但鼓勵有意義的溝通。
  • 美國應推延其危機管理機制，和對中國關係的行為準則，特別是在台灣問題上。
  • 在當前的地緣政治氛圍下，這方面的對話進展很少。
  • 但美中雙方的核心利益存在矛盾，若貿然開啟這方面的對話，可能會加劇兩國的緊張關係。
  • 美國應該根據具體問題提出計劃與合作，減少美中衝突風險。
  • 美國必須承認習近平的全球野心，支持他好的政策，並與中國合作共同處理關鍵的全球問題。
  • 美國也應避免把美中競爭塑造成一場危急存亡大戰或冷戰式競爭。
 
Summary:

There are hopes that the US and China can make amends in 2023. The US and China even paved the way for high-level talks to manage risks and maintain open lines of communication, only to be hampered by the Chinese spy balloon incident that invaded US airspace. Since then, US-China relations have gone into a downward spiral, with both sides accusing each other of being unwilling to negotiate or disregarding their national interest.

There are optimistic outlooks that the US and China will soon be thawing their cold relations, although it is motivated by self-interest: The US hopes to deescalate tension and compete with China responsibly to prevent conflict; China hopes to alleviate its domestic issues and ease diplomatic strains with other countries. There are ways to ensure constructive and effective dialogues.

  • The US can reprioritize direct and private diplomacy with China to prevent public bust-up and allow productive communications.
  • The US should delay crisis management mechanisms and code of conduct for its relationship with China, especially regarding Taiwan.
    • There is little progress in the current geopolitical climate.
    • Forcing dialogues in this aspect may further aggravate the strained relations as the US and China have conflicting core interests.
    • The US should propose concrete plans around specific issues to reduce risk with China.
  • The US must recognize Xi's global ambition, support his benign aspirations, and work with China to address critical global issues.
  • The US should also refrain from shaping its competition with China as an existential crisis or a Cold War-esque competition.
 
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