FP: 把烏克蘭變成豪豬 (Part 1)

作者:Franz-Stefan Gady
來源:Foreign Policy
日期:May 22, 2023

摘要:
俄烏戰爭早晚會結束。無論結果如何，西方需要為烏克蘭的防禦制定更好的計劃，以嚇阻未來俄羅斯的侵略。

烏克蘭的選擇

  • 烏克蘭可以成為北約的正式成員，並受到聯盟第5條的保護。
  • 烏克蘭可以與北約建立半正式的夥伴關係，將其軍隊與北約整合在一起，但不受第5條集體防禦條款的保護約束。
  • 烏克蘭可以與鄰國簽署雙邊安全條約，承諾在烏克蘭再次受到攻擊時提供援助。
  • 西方可以讓烏克蘭成為一隻有刺的豪豬，使未來的俄羅斯侵略成本提高。

依賴外部是很危險的行為。

  • 北約成員對接納烏克蘭加入其行列持矛盾態度。
  • 給予烏克蘭半正式地位可能更刺激俄羅斯侵略以及對烏克蘭軍事支持的不確定性。
  • 1994 年所簽之《布達佩斯安全保障備忘錄》失敗的經驗就告訴我們，沒有堅實軍事承諾的安全保障對烏克蘭沒有益處。
  • 鑑於上述挑戰，只有將烏克蘭變成一個強硬的豪豬，在政治上和軍事上才有可能嚇阻俄羅斯。

把烏克蘭變成豪豬

  • 透過西方的軍事援助，烏克蘭可以成為一隻剛強的豪豬，保持戰時經濟以生產武器，將武器裝備維持在北約的標準，並擁有一支具威嚇性的軍隊。
  • 西方可以為烏克蘭準備一個戰後豪豬戰略，與其簽訂長期的軍備協議，提供烏克蘭更多的現代化西方系統，並幫助其在當前衝突之後轉變為一個西方風格的軍隊。
  • 烏克蘭豪豬戰略的最終目的是讓入侵者知道他們無法在戰場上實現目標。烏克蘭不需要比入侵者更強大，但必須確保能夠靈活應對未來的入侵。

Summary:

The Russo-Ukraine War will end sooner or later. Regardless of the outcomes, the West needs better plans for Ukraine's defense to deter future Russian aggression.

Ukraine's Choices

  • Ukraine can become a full-fledged NATO member protected by the coalition's Article 5.
  • Ukraine can forge a semi-formal partnership with NATO that integrates its military with NATO without the collective defense clause from Article 5.
  • Ukraine can sign bilateral security pacts with neighboring countries that pledge to aid Ukraine if it is attacked again.
  • The West can turn Ukraine into a brisling porcupine, making future Russian aggression costly.

Relying on external parties is dangerous.

  • NATO members are ambivalent about admitting Ukraine into its ranks.
  • Giving Ukraine the semi-formal status could spark further Russian aggression and uncertain military support for Ukraine.
  • Security guarantees without a solid military commitment do not benefit Ukraine, as shown by the failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
  • Given the challenges above, only turning Ukraine into a toughened porcupine is politically and militarily feasible to deter Russia.

Turning Ukraine into a Porcupine

  • Ukraine can become a bristling porcupine with the West's military assistance, keep its wartime economy to produce weapons, maintain its weaponry to NATO's standard, and keep an intimidating military.
  • The West may prepare a post-war porcupine strategy for Ukraine with long-term military equipment agreements. The agreements give Ukraine modern Western systems and help it transform into a Western-style military after the current conflict.
  • The ulterior aim of Ukraine's porcupine strategy is to convince the invaders that they will not achieve their goals on the battlefield. Ukraine does not need to be stronger than the invaders but must ensure it can fight with maximum flexibility against future invasions.
 
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