為「圍觀者」辯護(Part 1)
發展中國家不願意在俄烏危機中站隊西方或俄羅斯，以避免陷入中國、俄羅斯和美國的大國競爭中。這些國家採取避險策略，以在動盪的國際秩序中保持最大的政策靈活性。此外，發展中國家認為，雖然俄羅斯逐漸走向衰落，但它仍然具有全球影響力，而俄羅斯的徹底失敗將造成權力真空，破壞世界穩定。 然而，西方國家將其中立性誤解成發展中國家將俄羅斯的侵略行為正常化，而忽視了西方家與發展中國家對抗莫斯科和北京的機會。為了管理不斷變化的國際秩序，西方必須吸引發展中國家並認真解決他們的問題。
為甚麼發展中國家採取避險策略?
- 發展中國家利用避險策略控制國安風險並最大化其利益。
- 避險策略也讓發展中國家能夠在多極世界中保持與各方的溝通渠道。
- 然而，避險很難實施，因為它取決於國內政治、經濟和安全利益多方角力。
- 避險者對經濟上的相互依賴很謹慎，因為這可能會損害他們的國家主權。因此，他們尋求促進國家自給自足，加強國內市場，並改善關鍵基礎設施。
- 避險者很重視政策自主權。他們可能會為了特定的外交政策目標而建立方便的夥伴關係，但不會追求廣泛的聯盟。在當今的多極秩序中，避險者希望避免在中國、俄羅斯和美國之間做出選擇，這與冷戰時期的不結盟運動不同。
Summary:
Developing countries are reluctant to side with the West or Russia in the Ukrainian Crisis to avoid being trapped in a great power competition among China, Russia, and the US. These countries pursue a hedging strategy to maintain maximum policy flexibility in a volatile international order. Further, developing countries felt Russia was still globally influential despite its imminent decline, and a complete Russia defeat would create a power vacuum that would destabilize the world. Yet, the West misinterprets their neutrality as normalizing Russia's aggression while ignoring its opportunity with the developing nations to counter Moscow and Beijing. To manage the ever-changing international order, the West must allure developing countries and address their concerns seriously.
Why Developing Countries Hedge?
- Developing countries hedge to manage risks and maximize their utility.
- Hedging also allows developing countries to keep communication channels open to all actors in a multipolar world.
- However, hedging is difficult because it depends on domestic political, economic, and security interests.
- Hedgers are cautious of economic interdependence because it compromises their sovereignty. Therefore, they seek to promote national self-reliance, strengthen domestic markets, and improve critical infrastructure.
- Hedgers cherish their policy autonomy. They may pursue partnerships of convenience for specific foreign policy goals but not broad alliances. In today's multipolar order, hedgers want to avoid choosing between China, Russia, and the United States, unlike the non-aligned movement during the Cold War.