WSJ: U.S., Allies Weigh How to Reduce Economic Ties with China


作者：Andrew Duehren and Greg Ip
來源：The Wall Street Journal
日期：Apr 17, 2023

在看到俄烏戰爭和COVID-19疫情而引起的供應鏈中斷後，G-7試圖在維持與中國的正常貿易和投資的同時，減少關鍵領域的依賴程度。

  • G-7的關切點：
    • 如果發生另一場衝突或疫情，中國對其他國家供應的日用品和物資可能會中斷。
    • 未經監管的西方資本和人才，可能會成為幫助解放軍的漏洞。
    • 防止採取會降低國家經濟措施的同時，也要減少對中國的依賴。
  • G-7希望通過與志同道合的夥伴緊密合作，一方面可以避免保護主義興起，以加強供應鏈彈性。
  • 美國積極調整全球經濟架構，遠離中國。
    • 補貼清潔能源和半導體技術公司，吸引其在美國投資。
    • 限制向中國出口尖端半導體和製造設備。
    • 呼籲「朋友圈」，增加與志同道合國家的貿易。
    • 美國正在針對那些可能會壯大解放軍的關鍵技術領域進行立法限制出口，例如量子計算、間單半導體和人工智慧。但其實，很難區分這些技術是民用還是軍用。
  • 雖然美國的盟友同意其目標，但他們對美國的手段表示擔憂。
    • 美國對清潔能源的補貼，旨在將該行業從中國轉移出去，可能會損害到美國與盟友自己國家內的產業。為此，美國正在制定貿易協議，通過聯盟採購關鍵礦物，並與歐洲討論防止補貼戰爭的步驟。
    • 增強中國貿易的獨立性，會使台灣海峽衝突機率升高。
  • G-7在防止資本和知識增強其競爭對手的軍事方面思維是一致的。
  • 一些西方國家也認為中國正在實行敵對的經濟行為，對澳洲和立陶宛實施非正式的貿易禁運，並考慮限制關鍵的太陽能製造技術。
  • 歐盟同意了一份「經濟脅迫工具」草案，以對從事經濟脅迫的國家行為體進行報復。

The G-7 attempts to reduce its relations in critical sectors while maintaining normal trade and investments with China, especially after watching supply chain disruption due to the Ukrainian War and COVID-19 pandemic.

  • G-7 concerns:
    • China can stop supplying daily goods and materials if another conflict or pandemic occurs.
    • Unmonitored Western capital and talents could help improvise the PLA.
    • Prevent measures that will degrade the economies of other countries while reducing dependence on China.
  • The G-7 hopes to bolster supply chain resilience by working closely with like-minded partners while avoiding protectionism.
  • The US is proactive in reorienting the global economy away from China.
    • Provided subsidies to clean-energy and semiconductor technology companies to base in the US.
    • Limited the export of advanced semiconductors and fabrication equipment to China.
    • Calls for "friend-shoring," increasing trade with like-minded countries.
    • The US is forming legislation that curbs US investment that targets only sectors that enhances the PLA, such as quantum computing, advanced semiconductor, and AI. However, it is hard to distinguish their usage for civilian technology or military.
  • Although US allies concur with its aims, they have concerns about its approach.
    • US subsidies in clean energy, which aim to redirect the industry out of China, may harm their industry. In response, the US is formulating trade deals to procure critical minerals through a coalition and discussing steps with Europe to prevent a subsidies war.
    • The increased trade independence from China may lead to a Taiwan Strait conflict.
  • The G-7 thinks alike in preventing capital and knowledge from enhancing their rival's military.
  • Some Western countries also think China is practicing hostile economic acts by imposing informal trade embargoes on Australia and Lithuania and considering limiting key solar manufacturing technologies.
  • The EU agreed on a draft "economic coercion instrument" that would retaliate against other parties proven to engage in economic coercion.
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