作者:Alastair Iain Johnston, Tsai Chia-hung, and George Yin
來源:Brookings Institution
摘要:
美國眾議院麥卡錫議長原本計劃訪問台灣，但因擔心中國強烈報復而取消了此計劃。然而，蔡英文總統在美國轉機期間，與麥卡錫會面，而中國在台灣周遭進行了環台軍演（再次）。
雖然台灣感謝美國的象徵性支持，但根據一項調查，大多數受訪者認為高調的象徵性姿態會使台灣變得不安全。當贊助國（美國）和客戶國（台灣）有共同的敵人（中國）時，客戶通常會接受任何可見和可信的支持。然而，如果支持降低了客戶的安全性，它就不會歡迎這種支持，並擔心這種支持會困住它。
主要發現：
- 不同的政治立場對陷阱的恐懼有顯著的差異。國民黨和無黨派人士擔心民進黨和美國**對中國的戰略競爭的執著會讓台灣變得不安全。**大多數受訪者（62％）認為佩洛西的訪問使台灣變得不安全，特別是國民黨支持者和無黨派人士。
- 對於台灣變得不安全的原因，各黨派的看法有差異：
- 大多數民進黨支持者認為，台灣長期以來對國防的漠視和**美國對派兵保衛台灣的模糊立場，**造成了台海不穩定的局勢。
- 無論政治立場如何，所有受訪者都認為中國強迫統一的企圖和台灣日益支持獨立的態度促成了不穩定。
- 大多數國民黨支持者和無黨派人士認為美國轉向「一個中國，一個台灣」的政策促成了不穩定。
- 大多數國民黨支持者和無黨派人士認為美國和台灣的價值觀存在差異。
- 注意事項：
- 如果高調支持變成適得其反，使客戶變得不安全，它將損害贊助人和客戶之間的關係。
- 雙重威懾（可信的脅迫和可信的保證）可能不會降低衝突的概率。然而，一些受訪者仍然認為雙重威懾符合這種方法，這可能是美國政治家陷入陷阱的基礎。
*完整的分析和圖表請參閱來源。
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy originally planned a high-profile visit to Taiwan but was canceled due to fears of strong retaliation from Beijing. However, President Tsai met with McCarthy during her transit in the US, and China conducted quarantine drills (again) around Taiwan waters.
Although the Taiwanese appreciate the symbolic support from the US, according to a survey, most respondents believe that high-profile symbolic gestures make Taiwan less secure. When a patron state (the US) and a client state (Taiwan) share a common enemy (China), the client normally embraces any visible and credible backing. Yet, if the support degrades the client's security, it will not welcome the support and fears that the partron will entrap it.
Key findings:
- There is a significant difference in fear of entrapment among different political stances. The KMT and independents fear that the DPP and the US's infatuation with the strategic competition with China makes Taiwan less safe. Most respondents (62%) think Pelosi's visit made Taiwan less secure, especially among KMT supporters and independents.
- There is a partisan difference in the view of what made Taiwan less secure:
- Most DPP supporters view Taiwan's longtime indifference to national defense and US's ambiguous stance on sending forces to defend Taiwan contributes to the instability.
- Regardless of political stance, all respondents agreed that China's appetite for forced reunification and the Taiwanese increasing pro-independence attitude contributed to the instability.
- Most KMT supporters and independents view US's shift toward the "One China, One Taiwan" policy contributed to the instability.
- Most KMT supporters and independents think the US and Taiwan's values differ.
- Caveats:
- If high-profile support is counterproductive and makes the client less secure, it will impair the relationship between patron and client.
- Dual deterrence-credible coercion and credible assurance- may not reduce the probability of conflict. Yet, some respondents still think the dual deterrence agrees with this method, which may be a basis for fear of entrapment by Us politicians.
*Please see the source for the complete analysis and graphs.