FP: The U.S. Needs and Economic War Council for China (Part 2)

  
作者:Charles Edel and Edward Fishman
來源:Foreign Policy

制裁中國：一把雙面刃

  • 拜登政府已開始對中國半導體產業進行出口管制，以實行消耗制裁。然而，如果華盛頓希望削弱中國的軍事能力，它必須擴大其懲罰範圍。
  • 由於美國投資者和企業對中國市場極度依賴，制裁可能會對美國造成傷害，而且其將影響全球經濟。然而，中國在全球經濟中的關鍵作用使其極易受到制裁的影響。
  • 美國及其盟友必須更謹慎仔細地規劃制裁程序，使中國受到的傷害大於自己。同時也要制定應急計劃以減少被自己的制裁影響反撲，並且在北京決定入侵之前協調彼此的行動。
  • 美國還必須對制裁進行分析和模擬，以了解潛在的後果並形成制定適當的政策，雖然這些後續措施可能與美國的利益相反。

從內部改變

  • 美國國防部經常進行類似戰爭演習的推演，但美國的經濟機構卻很少這麼做。如果美國想發動經濟戰來威懾或懲罰中國，就需要進行組織上的改變。
  • 美國應成立一個名為經濟應變規劃委員會（ECPC）的工作小組，負責制定經濟戰略，使制裁措施更加有效。
    • ECPC應該有專門的預算，並由國務院、財政部、商務部和中央情報局的工作人員組成。
    • 雖然美中經濟暨安全檢討委員會向國會建議成立該任務小組，但目前尚未獲得通過。拜登政府應通過行政命令開始ECPC。
    • ECPC應該首先制定美國可以用來報復中國入侵台灣的制裁方案。
    • ECPC需要在考慮與盟國共同努力的同時，關注國內的反應。
  • 如果習近平低估了美國及其盟友在經濟上懲罰中國的決心，那將會發生災難性的結局。因此，美國必須讓習近平明白入侵台灣的嚴重後果，表達實施懲罰的決心，並與盟友緊密協調懲戒措施。

 

Sanctioning China: A double-edged sword

  • The Biden administration has already started its attritional sanctions through export controls on China's semiconductor industry. Yet, if Washington hopes to degrade China's military capability, it must widen its punishment.
  • Due to heavy dependence on the Chinese market, the sanctions may hurt US investors and businesses, with effects reverberating worldwide. However, China's pivotal role in the global economy makes it highly vulnerable to sanctions.
  • The US and its allies must carefully formulate sanction procedures that will inflict more damage to China than themselves, form contingency plans to reduce the economic aftershocks, and coordinate their actions before Beijing decides to invade.
  • The US must also analyze and simulate the sanctions to understand the potential consequences and form suitable policy responses that may go against US interests.

Change from within

  • The Department of Defense practiced similar wargaming as a routine, but it is rare in the economic bureaucracies in the US. An organizational change is needed if the US wants to wage economic warfare to deter or punish China.
  • The US should form a task force called Economic Contingency Planning Committee (ECPC) that devises economic warfighting to make sanctions more effective.
    • The ECPC should have a dedicated budget and be staffed by State, Treasury, Commerce, and CIA.
    • Although the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission recommended this task force to Congress, it was yet to pass. The Biden administration should start the ECPC through executive order.
    • ECPC should start with formulating sanction options that the US could use to retaliate against the Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
    • ECPC needs to focus on domestic responses while considering joint efforts with allies.
  • It would be disastrous if Xi underestimates the US and its allies' determination to punish China economically. Therefore, the US must let Xi understand the serious consequences of invading Taiwan, show resolve in imposing the punishments, and coordinate tightly with allies on the punitive measures.
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