CSIS: 消耗戰中的烏克蘭軍事革新
Military Innovation
作者/Author(s): Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe, and Alexander Palmer
原文來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies
日期/Date: 02/27/2023
主題/Key Topics : Military, Innovation, War of Attrition
摘要:
烏克蘭在軍事和經濟上不及俄羅斯,但仍成功抵禦了俄羅斯的轟炸,並收復了部分失地。俄羅斯雖然有超強的軍事能力,但在沒有取得快速勝利的情況下損失了大量的部隊和裝備。然而,雙方都處於一場消耗戰中,無法確保決定性的勝利。烏克蘭可以透過軍事創新來對抗俄羅斯的攻勢,但他們也需要西方的補給來維持其長期的戰爭消耗。
消耗戰
- 消耗戰是指各方試圖通過摧毀設備和人員來互相消耗。雙方都需要承受相當大的傷亡和武器損失。
- 在這個階段中,較弱的一方通常會佔上風,尤其是如果他們能夠以創新思維進行戰鬥的話。
軍事革新
- 軍事革新包括戰爭方式或戰略原則的改變,尤其是在作戰層面上的改變。
- 軍事革新在承平時期很難實現,因為未來是不可預測的。而且軍事組織通常會不願意改變,尤其是革新思維沒有被真正的戰鬥檢驗過其作戰能力。
- 然而,在戰爭期間,由於作戰控制權分散,資源有限,軍事革新得以實現。
- 軍事創新通常是由基礎軍官的想法、作戰的時間與資訊收集而推動。
- 創新的作戰思維在烏克蘭的成功中發揮了作用,而且會越來越重要,以確保其在消耗戰中取得成功。
- 烏克蘭成功地將無人機系統納入跨ISTAR(情報、監視、目標捕獲和偵察)和攻擊任務的聯合武器作戰體系中。
- 烏克蘭還使用商業無人機和自主開發的軟體執行戰鬥任務。
- 烏克蘭還靠著一款名叫星鏈(Starlink)商業低軌道衛星系統,繞過俄羅斯的通訊干擾。
- 其他創新
- 改裝反艦飛彈,用於對地攻擊。
- 給無人機裝上炸彈。
- 用3D印表機製造零件。
- 障礙:
- 缺乏烏克蘭官方政府的資金支持以及使用許可。
- 缺少必要的通訊硬體。
- 商業企業不願意讓軟體與烏克蘭軍用系統融合。
- 烏克蘭應該將目前的國內創新系統正規化,建立一個監督程序,分析其結果,並允許其軍隊使用已經發展完成的創新武器。
- 烏克蘭的外國支持者可以提供更多的財政援助來幫助創新者,並向烏克蘭提供更多的防禦性武器和彈藥。
Summary:
Ukraine, which is inferior to Russia militarily and economically, fended off Russia's bombardment and regained some lost territories. Russia lost much of its forces and equipment without securing a quick victory, although it had a superior military capability. However, both sides are in a war of attrition, unable to secure a decisive win. Ukraine can counter Russia's offensive with its military innovation but requires supplies from the West to sustain its long-term war efforts.
War of Attrition
War of Attrition
- A war of attrition is a stage where the actors try to exhaust each other by destroying equipment and personnel. Both sides will need to absorb considerable casualties and loss of weaponry.
- The weaker side usually prevails at this stage, especially if it can fight innovatively.
Military Innovation
- Military innovation includes a change in warfighting or even the doctrine, especially at the operational level.
- It is hard to achieve during peacetime because the future is unpredictable, and the military organization fears change as it is not proven effective in combat.
- However, military innovation happens during wartime when operational control is decentralized, and resources are limited.
- Military innovation usually starts with ideas from junior officers, time, and information.
Ukrainian Innovation
- Innovation played a role in Ukraine's success and will become more important to secure its success in the war of attrition.
- Ukraine successfully incorporated unmanned aerial systems in combined arms warfare across ISTAR and attack missions.
- Ukraine also deployed commercial UAVs and self-developed software for its operation.
- Ukraine also relied on Starlink, a commercial low-orbital satellite constellation, to bypass Russia's communication jamming.
- Other innovations:
- Repurposing anti-ship missiles for ground-based attacks.
- Refurbishing UAVs with bombs.
- Using 3D printers to build parts.
- Obstacles:
- Lack of official Ukrainian government funding, support, and permission for usage.
- Lack of necessary communication hardware.
- Commercial enterprises are reluctant to allow software integration into the Ukrainian Army's system.
Future implications:
- Ukraine should formalize the current domestic innovation system, create a process to oversee it, analyze its results, and permit its army to use the already deployed innovations.
- Foreign supporters of Ukraine can provide more financial aid to assist the innovators and provide more defensive weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.