CSIS: 消耗戰中的烏克蘭軍事革新

作者/Author(s): Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe, and Alexander Palmer 

原文來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 02/27/2023 

主題/Key Topics : Military, Innovation, War of Attrition 





  • 消耗戰是指各方試圖通過摧毀設備和人員來互相消耗。雙方都需要承受相當大的傷亡和武器損失
  • 在這個階段中,較弱的一方通常會佔上風,尤其是如果他們能夠以創新思維進行戰鬥的話 
  • 軍事革新包括戰爭方式或戰略原則的改變,尤其是在作戰層面上的改變 
  • 軍事革新在承平時期很難實現,因為未來是不可預測的。而且軍事組織通常會不願意改變,尤其是革新思維沒有被真正的戰鬥檢驗過其作戰能力。 
  • 然而,在戰爭期間,由於作戰控制權分散,資源有限,軍事革新得以實現 
  • 軍事創新通常是由基礎軍官的想法、作戰的時間與資訊收集而推動 
  • 創新的作戰思維在烏克蘭的成功中發揮了作用,而且會越來越重要,以確保其在消耗戰中取得成功
  • 烏克蘭成功地將無人機系統納入跨ISTAR(情報、監視、目標捕獲和偵察)和攻擊任務的聯合武器作戰體系中 
  • 烏克蘭還使用商業無人機和自主開發的軟體執行戰鬥任務 
  • 烏克蘭還靠著一款名叫星鏈(Starlink)商業低軌道衛星系統,繞過俄羅斯的通訊干擾
  • 其他創新 
  1. 改裝反艦飛彈,用於對地攻擊 
  2. 給無人機裝上炸彈 
  3. 用3D印表機製造零件。 
  • 障礙 
  1. 缺乏烏克蘭官方政府的資金支持以及使用許可
  2. 缺少必要的通訊硬體 
  3. 商業企業不願意讓軟體與烏克蘭軍用系統融合 
  • 烏克蘭應該將目前的國內創新系統正規化,建立一個監督程序,分析其結果,並允許其軍隊使用已經發展完成的創新武器 
  • 烏克蘭的外國支持者可以提供更多的財政援助來幫助創新者,並向烏克蘭提供更多的防禦性武器和彈藥 
Ukraine, which is inferior to Russia militarily and economically, fended off Russia's bombardment and regained some lost territories. Russia lost much of its forces and equipment without securing a quick victory, although it had a superior military capability. However, both sides are in a war of attrition, unable to secure a decisive win. Ukraine can counter Russia's offensive with its military innovation but requires supplies from the West to sustain its long-term war efforts. 

War of Attrition
  • A war of attrition is a stage where the actors try to exhaust each other by destroying equipment and personnel. Both sides will need to absorb considerable casualties and loss of weaponry. 
  • The weaker side usually prevails at this stage, especially if it can fight innovatively. 

Military Innovation 
  • Military innovation includes a change in warfighting or even the doctrine, especially at the operational level. 
  • It is hard to achieve during peacetime because the future is unpredictable, and the military organization fears change as it is not proven effective in combat. 
  • However, military innovation happens during wartime when operational control is decentralized, and resources are limited. 
  • Military innovation usually starts with ideas from junior officers, time, and information. 
Ukrainian Innovation 
  • Innovation played a role in Ukraine's success and will become more important to secure its success in the war of attrition. 
  • Ukraine successfully incorporated unmanned aerial systems in combined arms warfare across ISTAR and attack missions. 
  • Ukraine also deployed commercial UAVs and self-developed software for its operation. 
  • Ukraine also relied on Starlink, a commercial low-orbital satellite constellation, to bypass Russia's communication jamming.
  • Other innovations: 
  1. Repurposing anti-ship missiles for ground-based attacks. 
  2. Refurbishing UAVs with bombs. 
  3. Using 3D printers to build parts. 
  • Obstacles: 
  1. Lack of official Ukrainian government funding, support, and permission for usage. 
  2. Lack of necessary communication hardware. 
  3. Commercial enterprises are reluctant to allow software integration into the Ukrainian Army's system. 
Future implications: 
  • Ukraine should formalize the current domestic innovation system, create a process to oversee it, analyze its results, and permit its army to use the already deployed innovations. 
  • Foreign supporters of Ukraine can provide more financial aid to assist the innovators and provide more defensive weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.