FA: 如何超越中國的威懾力
 

作者/Author(s): Joel Wuthnow 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/24/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Strategy, Deterrence, Military

摘要:

在1996年台海危機中，解放軍無法阻止美國干預台灣。此後，中國重新修訂其戰略威懾方法—包括核信號—以減少美國干預的可能性。為此，拜登政府引入了綜合性威懾戰略，將美國國家實力的所有工具合併起來，警告中國戰爭的嚴重後果。儘管中國現在擁有入侵台灣和阻止美國干預的軍事能力，但對北京來說，戰爭的前景仍然充滿風險。然而，中國擴大其核武庫以及俄羅斯成功利用核威脅限制美國對烏克蘭的支持，可能會增強中國的信念，即華盛頓不太可能代表台灣進行干預。美國必須比中國更有威懾力，讓中國相信全面戰爭對雙方都是災難。 

充滿信心的北京？ 

  • 北京認為美國正在衰退，在社會、政治和經濟上都更加脆弱。
  • 中國已經擴大了其戰略武器裝備，並對其軍事能力充滿信心。 
  • 中國認為普丁的多次核威脅限制了美國和歐盟對烏克蘭的支持。因此，北京可能會使用類似的策略來威懾美國。 
遏制北京 
  • 美國的威懾戰略涉及與緊密盟友的協調，如果台灣海峽危機發生，這些盟友將受到威脅。
  • 美國的威懾戰略涉及協調國家權力的所有工具。美國在全球金融和貿易中的主導地位可能使中國受到牽制。 
  • 美國必須與北京保持戰略溝通，以削弱其對威懾戰略的信心，並強調核升級的危險性。 
  1. 與北京溝通很重要，因為如果中國封鎖台灣，美國援助台灣的選擇有限。
  2. 美國必須明確表示，核升級或對關鍵基礎設施的定向攻擊只會加劇緊張局勢。美國還必須向北京保證，它不會攻擊中國的關鍵基礎設施。 
 
Summary: 
In the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the PLA could not stop the US from intervening in Taiwan. Since then, China formulated and revised its strategic deterrence approach, including nuclear signaling, to make US intervention less likely. In response, the Biden administration introduced an integrated deterrence approach, which merges all tools of the US national power to warn China of the dire consequences of war. Although China now has the military capability to invade Taiwan and stop the US's intervention, the prospect of war remains risky for Beijing. Yet, China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal and Russia's success in using nuclear threats to limit US support for Ukraine may boost China's beliefs that Washington will less likely intervene on behalf of Taiwan. The US must out-deter China to convince China an all-out war will be disastrous for both of them. 

Confident Beijing? 
  • Beijing believes the US is in decline and is socially, politically, and economically more vulnerable. 
  • China has expanded its strategic weaponry and is confident of its military capability. 
  • China assumes Putin's repeated nuclear threats limited the US and EU support for Ukraine. Therefore, Beijing may use similar tactics to deter the US. 

Out-Deterring Beijing 
  • US's deterrence strategy involves coordination with close allies that would be threatened if a Taiwan Strait crisis happens. 
  • US's deterrence strategy involves and coordinates all instruments of national power. US's dominance in global financial and trade may keep China in check. 
  • The US must maintain strategic communication with Beijing to diminish its confidence in its deterrence strategy and accentuate the dangers of nuclear escalation. ​​​​​​​
  1. It is important to communicate with Beijing because the US has limited options to assist Taiwan if China blockades Taiwan.  
  2. The US must make clear that nuclear escalation or targeted attacks on critical infrastructure will only increase the tension. The US must also ensure Beijing that it will not attack China's critical infrastructure. 
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