FA: 朋友勝過工廠

作者/Author(s): Cynthia Cook 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 03/27/2023 

主題/Key Topics : Alliance, Diplomacy, Defense 

摘要:

隨著俄烏戰爭戰線延長，烏克蘭成功地抵擋俄羅斯，表明了聯盟和夥伴關係比防禦生產本身更重要。雖然俄羅斯擁有更大的國防生產基地和更多的人員，但烏克蘭從美國和歐盟持續獲得現代武器供應，以打擊俄羅斯人或解放被占領的領土。西方國家甚至提供烏克蘭相關情報和軍事培訓。西方不斷協調共同實施制裁，這些制裁嚴重損害了俄羅斯的經濟和防禦生產，也削弱了俄羅斯獲取關鍵防禦零件的渠道。 

烏克蘭的成功 

  • 在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞之前，監管問題困擾著烏克蘭的防禦工業，影響了其抵禦俄羅斯的能力。  
  • 自克里米亞戰爭之後，烏克蘭改革其軍事組織，投資防禦能力，增強其工業基礎。  
  • 烏克蘭認識到俄羅斯是最大的威脅。因此，它尋求與北約建立更緊密的關係，增強烏克蘭與北約的軍事合作空間。  
  • 澤倫斯基的高調公關活動獲得了世界各地的支持，為烏克蘭提供了自己無法生產的武器和彈藥，以對抗俄羅斯。
俄羅斯的侷限性 
  • 雖然俄羅斯的國防工業比烏克蘭更大，但它在進入外國供應鏈方面受到限制，決策不透明導致效率低下和浪費。 
  • 西方的制裁使俄羅斯的國防工業進一步惡化，俄羅斯已經努力補充其損失的設備並推遲下一代系統的生產。現在，俄羅斯試圖從第三方規避制裁。 
  • 俄羅斯轉向伊朗、朝鮮和中國，以獲得武器系統、用品和零件。
未來的挑戰 
  • 如果衝突持續下去，俄羅斯和烏克蘭都要想辦法恢復其防禦工業基地。  
  • 烏克蘭的合作夥伴必須補充自己的庫存，並找出防禦生產中的障礙，以應對可能在太平洋地區爆發的衝突。  
  • 美國及其盟友可以合作投資和分享其防禦工業能力。 
 
Summary: 
As the Ukrainian War drags on, Ukraine's success in holding up against Russia highlights the importance of alliance and partnership over defense production. Although Russia has larger defense production bases and more personnel, Ukraine received continuous and modern weapon supplies from the US and EU to combat Russians or liberate captured territories. Western countries also give Ukraine intelligence and training. The West even coordinated sanctions that badly hurt Russia's economy and defense production as the sanctions cut Russia's access to key defense components.  

Ukraine's Success 
  • Before Russia annexed Crimea, regulatory problems plagued Ukraine's defense industry, affecting its ability to defend against Russia. 
  • Since then, Ukraine has reformed its military organization and invested in defense capabilities to increase its industrial base. 
  • Ukraine acknowledged Russia as the largest threat. Therefore, it sought closer relationships with NATO to enhance Ukraine's military coordination with NATO. 
  • Zelensky's high-profile public relation campaign drew worldwide support, obtaining the weapon and ammunition it couldn't produce to combat Russia. 

 

Russia's Limitations 

  • Although Russia's defense industry is larger than Ukraine, it has restricted access to foreign supply chains and intransparent decision-making, leading to inefficiency and wastage. 
  • Western sanction further deteriorates Russia's defense industry. Russia struggles to replace its lost equipment and delay the production of next-generation systems. However, Russia attempts to circumvent the sanctions from a third party. 
  • Russia turned to Iran, North Korea, and China to acquire weapons systems, supplies, and parts. 
Challenges Ahead 
  • Russia and Ukraine must restore their defense industrial bases if the conflict prolongs. 
  • Ukraine's partners must restock their inventory and identify their obstacles in defense production to prepare for a possible conflict in the Pacific. 
  • The US and its allies can collaborate to invest and share their defense industrial capacity.
 
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