作者/Author(s): Doug Bandow
原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date: 03/02/2023
主題/Key Topics: War, US-China-Taiwan Relations, Conflict Prevention
摘要:
自 2022 年 8 月佩洛西議長高調訪台後，台海戰爭爆發的可能性持續增加。雖然中國政府持續發出嚴厲警告，但現任議長麥卡錫和一些共和黨人可能很快就會訪問台灣。大多數的中國鷹派不理解台灣對中華人民共和國的重要性，只將其視為一個可以刺激北京而不會帶來嚴重後果的刺。此外，他們相信美國有一切手段和意願來保衛台灣免受中國的入侵。
美國有理由保衛台灣。它與台北長期保持密切的關係，而且大多數台灣人不支持與中國統一。華盛頓的政策制定者和美國軍方領導人擔心台灣最快會在2025年遭到入侵。然而，台灣問題對美國來說並不構成生存危機，但對中國來說卻是一個至關重要的利益。對中國來說，台灣問題關乎民族主義和安全利益，儘管中國知道美國高機率會採取軍事干預，但它不能放棄。因此，美國必須重新審視是否需要采取軍事行動來保衛台灣。
基於針對台灣防禦的多次戰爭模擬，即使在東亞盟友的幫助下，美國也會失敗或勉強慘勝。此外，美國目前對台灣安全的承諾是模糊的，這容易引起北京對美國保證的疑慮。在地緣位置上，北京比美國更有利，這讓北京擁有更強大的「反介入/區域拒止」（Anti-Access/Area Denial，A2/AD）能力。雖然目前中國要對台灣發起兩棲入侵很困難，但他們可能會使用封鎖來挑戰美國。這將使美國陷入深深的兩難境地，如果美國發起第一槍，可能會使衝突升級為一場全面戰爭。中國的失敗可能不會帶來和平的國際秩序，而是可能激起中國民族主義，導致它再次崛起，進行另一輪戰爭，就像一戰後的德國一樣。除此之外，美國在財政上已經過度擴張，一旦美國獲勝，後續對台灣的爭奪只會增加其負擔。
沉重的衝突代價揭示著預防戰爭的重要性。美國、台灣和中國都必須更多地投入外交努力，減少緊張局面，維持和平現狀。美國也必須及時告知其人民衝突對台灣的嚴重後果，並制定相關計畫，避免衝突升級。
Summary:
Since August 2022, the possibility of a war over Taiwan has heightened after then-House speaker Pelosi's high-profile visit to the island. Current speaker McCarthy and some Republicans may visit Taiwan soon despite stern warnings from the Beijing government. Most China hawks do not understand Taiwan's importance to the PRC, thinking of it only as a thorn that can prick Beijing painfully without serious consequences. Further, they are confident that the US has all the means and will to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.
The US has reasons to defend Taiwan. It has an enduring relationship with Taipei, and most Taiwanese do not support reunification with PRC. Washington policymakers and US military leaders fear a Taiwan invasion as soon as 2025. Yet, the Taiwan issue does not pose an existential crisis to the US, but it is a critical interest for PRC. For China, Taiwan is a nationalistic and security interest that it cannot surrender, despite knowing the risks of US military intervention. Therefore, the US must reexamine whether military action over Taiwan's defense is necessary.
Based on several wargames over Taiwan's defense, the US will lose or get a pyrrhic victory, even with the assistance of East Asian allies. Further, US's current commitment to Taiwan's security is ambiguous, allowing Beijing to question US's guarantees. The geography favors Beijing over the US as proximity to Taiwan allows greater A2AD capabilities. Although an amphibious invasion of Taiwan island is difficult, China may use a blockade to challenge the US. It will put the US into a deep dilemma and may escalate the conflict into a total war if the US fires the first shot. A peaceful international order may not happen with the defeat of China. Rather, it may fuel Chinese nationalism and cause it to rise again for another round of war, like Germany after the first world war. Lastly, the US is financially overextended, and a fight over Taiwan will only increase its burden once it wins.
The high cost of conflict marks the importance of war prevention. The US, Taiwan, and PRC must devote more diplomatic effort to reduce tension and maintain the peaceful status quo. The US must notify its public urgently of the dire consequences of conflict over Taiwan and plan to limit conflict escalation.