FP: 武裝烏克蘭還是準備應對中國?錯誤的問題 

作者/Author(s): Peter Rough and Mike Watson 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 03/13/2023 

主題/Key Topics : Military, Logistics 




  • 有人呼籲減少對烏克蘭的軍火援助,專注於中美國最大的威脅和對手中國身上。特別是當中國的軍事擴張對台灣形成巨大威脅時 
  • 支持烏克蘭的人認為,削弱俄羅斯將使中國不太可能挑戰美國,並讓美國以後能果斷地轉向亞洲 
  • 無論是援助烏克蘭還是援助台灣,關鍵的問題是彈藥的密集消耗,而目前美國彈藥儲備的不足又加劇了這種消耗 
  • 美國國防部正在增加彈藥採購,以取代運往烏克蘭的彈藥,國防承包商也正在加快生產 
  • 烏克蘭人收到的是打擊固定目標的武器和彈藥,美國不會在太平洋上使用這些武器和彈藥。這些物資來自美國的儲備供應,所以也不會影響台灣的訂單。 
  • 台灣還沒有收到的標槍飛彈和毒刺防空飛彈等訂單,這是在烏克蘭戰爭前就已經延誤的
  • 彈藥短缺的原因
  1. 庫存量。隨著戰爭快速消耗彈藥,美國必須為其防禦和盟友維持更大的庫存
  2. 生產效率。目前的美國國防工業基地足以維持和平時期的生產量能,但他們不願意長期為戰爭努力
  • ​​​​​​​二戰期間,美國正在緩慢地實現軍事現代化,但當其他國家開始從美國採購武器時,就擴大了美國的國防工業基地。這次也可能有效,但中國的威脅已經逐漸加劇,美國必須立即開始準備。 
  • 目前最關鍵的需求是軍火及其零件,特別是當美國可能要打一場持久戰的時候 
The US military faces a munition supply problem from aiding the Ukrainian Army. It creates a dilemma for the US as they may not have sufficient munitions to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. The US must increase its defense production to restock and expand its inventory to solve the shortage problem. 

Ukraine or China? 
  • There are calls to reduce munition aid to Ukraine and focus on China, US's biggest threat and adversary, especially when China's military expansion is fast and dangerous to Taiwan. 
  • Proponents of Ukraine argue that weakening Russia will make China less likely to challenge the US and allow the US a decisive pivot to Asia later. 
  • Whether aiding Ukraine or Taiwan, the key problem is the intense consumption of munitions, exacerbated by the current inadequacy of the US munition stockpile. 

A wake-up call: Reviving US's defense industry 
  • The US Department of Defense is increasing its munition procurement to replace those which went to Ukraine. Defense contractors are also accelerating their production in response. 
  • Ukrainians receive weapons and munitions that hit stationary targets, which the US will not use in the Pacific Ocean. These supplies came from the US reserve supply, which does not affect Taiwan's orders. 
  • Taiwan has yet to receive some of its orders for Javelins and Stingers, caused by a manufacturing backlog before the Ukraine War. 
  • The elements of munition shortage: ​​​​​​​
  1. Size of the stockpile. As war quickly consumes munitions, the US must maintain a larger inventory for its defense and allies. 
  2. Rate of production. The current US defense industrial base is sufficient to sustain peacetime production rate, but are reluctant to dedicate to the long-term war effort. ​​​​​​​
  • During WWII, the US was slowly modernizing its military but expanded its defense industry bases when other countries started procuring arms from the US. It may work again this time, but the US must begin now as the threat from China is looming. 
  • The most critical need currently is munitions and their components, especially when the US may be fighting a protracted war.