Parameters：覆巢之下無全卵：嚇阻中國侵台(第二部分)
 

作者/Author(s): Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris 

原文來源/Source: The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters Vol. 51, No. 4 

日期/Date: Winter 2021 

主題/Key Topics: Deterrence Strategy, Defense 

摘要:

美國必須修改其「拒止性嚇阻」戰略，以應對當前的挑戰並降低中國入侵台灣的慾望。首先，美國可以針對中國非軍事國家優先事項的威懾懲罰戰略來提高中國的行動成本。其次，美國可以降低中國的克制成本，從而使美國和中國在台灣問題上達成緩和。 

懲罰性威懾 

  • 懲罰性威懾就像中國諺語說的「覆巢之下無完卵」的概念來警告中國，入侵台灣將導致比現狀更不利於中國的和平。這種概念可以阻止中國入侵台灣，並向世界保證美國不會尋求大國戰爭。
  • 美國可以通過採購正確的防禦性武器（把台灣變成豪豬）和游擊戰訓練，使台灣更能抵抗入侵。台灣越能展示其發動必要防禦戰的意願和能力，美國就越不需要對中國進行軍事威脅。 
  • 美國和台灣必須威脅中國，入侵台灣的焦土戰術將影響整個台灣科技產業，甚至引發中國經濟危機。 
  1. 由於中共的政權合法性建立在國內和諧、國家復原力和經濟持續增長的承諾之上，焦土戰術將損害中共的統治。 
  2. 然而，中國可能認為台灣不願意摧毀其高價值半導體產業。因此，台灣必須制定一個自動破壞機制，阻止半導體產業落入中國手中。美國及其盟友必須支持台灣的事業，制定一個應急計劃，疏散台灣的人才和資本。 
  • 台灣還必須計畫如何使用巡航飛彈和彈道飛彈來摧毀自己的半導體製造工廠，以威脅中國。 
  • 美國可以協調一致的經濟制裁和政治孤立來威脅中國。 
  • 從北京的角度來看，懲罰性威懾戰略將使中國侵台變得更難且成本更高，讓中國沒那麼想要台灣。 
 
Summary: 
The US must revise its deterrence-by-denial strategy to address current challenges and reduce China's appetite for a Taiwan invasion. First, the US can raise the cost of action for China through a deterrence-by-punishment strategy targeted at China's non-military national priorities. Second, the US can reduce the cost of restraint for China such that the US and China can reach a detente on the Taiwan issue. 
 

Deterrence-by-punishment 

  • The deterrence-by-punishment borrows from the Chinese proverb of 覆巢之下無完卵 to warn China that a Taiwan invasion would result in peace more damaging to it than the status quo. This strategy can deter China from invading Taiwan and assure the world that the US does not seek a great power war. 
  • ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​The US can make Taiwan more resistant to an invasion by procuring correct defensive weapons (i.e., turning Taiwan into a porcupine) and training for guerilla warfare. The more credible Taiwan can demonstrate its will and ability to wage a defensive war of necessity, the less the US will need to threaten China militarily.  ​​​​​​​
  • The US and Taiwan must threaten China that a Taiwan invasion would trigger a major economic crisis in China through scorched-earth tactics on Taiwan's technology industry.  ​​​​​​​
  1. Since CCP builds its legitimacy around promises of domestic harmony, national resilience, and sustained economic growth, the scorched-earth tactic will damage CCP's rule.  
  2. However, China may believe Taiwan is unwilling to destroy its priced semiconductor industry. Therefore, Taiwan must formulate an automatic mechanism to stop its semiconductor industry from falling into China's hands. The US and its allies must support Taiwan's cause with a contingency plan to evacuate Taiwan's talents and capital. 
  • Taiwan must also threaten China by planning to destroy its semiconductor fabrication factories using cruise and ballistic missiles. 
  • The US can threaten China with coordinated economic sanctions and political isolation. 
  • The deterrence-by-punishment strategy would make a Taiwan invasion irrational from Beijing's view and make Taiwan unwantable to China. 
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