Parameters：覆巢之下無全卵：嚇阻中國侵台(第一部分) 

 

作者/Author(s): Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris 

原文來源/Source: The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters Vol. 51, No. 4 

日期/Date: Winter 2021 

主題/Key Topics: Deterrence Strategy, Defense ：

摘要:

台灣地位是美中之間一直長期存在的問題。在過去的十年裡，中國把台灣的統一作為首要任務之一，並表現出不排除使用軍事入侵台灣的可能性。美國有充分的理由保衛台灣，因為台灣是民主的重要象徵和美國的地緣政治夥伴。美國依靠「拒止性嚇阻」(deterrence by denial)來制止中國侵台，但中國近年的軍事擴張足以讓中國挑戰美國，甚至可能造成美國的重大損失。因此，美國和台灣必須制定一個新的威懾戰略，利用懲罰進行威懾，阻止中國入侵台灣，防止大國戰爭。  

為甚麼「拒止性嚇阻」會失敗？ 

  • 如果中國成功入侵台灣或給美國造成重大損失，將提高中國的國內和國際威望，鞏固其作為大國的地位。如果美國不願意援助台灣或不能阻止中國，它就會面臨信譽問題。 
  • 北京算計的變化 
  1. ​​​​​​​東亞的軍事平衡，特別是台灣海峽周圍的軍事平衡，相較起來更有利於中國。中國的地理優勢和技術能力可以阻止美國援助台灣。中國還設計了一套在美國及其盟國做出回應之前收復台灣的戰略。 
  2. 對中國來說，克制的代價（接受未解決的台灣問題）不斷增加。台灣人越來越排斥與中國統一。 
  3. 中國認為美國逐漸將台灣拉離 1992 年的共識，這對北京是一種挑釁。 
  • 這些綜合因素將中國推向了入侵台灣的邊緣，並增加了美國的戰爭成本。
  • 美國可以阻礙中國的軍力增長，但無法扭轉平衡。改變台灣的反統立場或中國的統一目標是不可能的。 
 
Summary: 
Taiwan's status is a longstanding issue between the US and China. Over the past decade, China put Taiwan's reunification as one of its top priorities and has shown a willingness to resort to military invasion. The US has all the reasons to defend Taiwan since it is an important symbol of democracy and a crucial geopolitical partner. The US relied on deterrence by denial to stop the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but it may fail since China's military has expanded such that it can inflict a heavy loss on the US. Therefore, the US and Taiwan must formulate a new deterrence strategy, deterrence through punishment, that dissuades China from invading Taiwan and prevents a great power war.  

Why deterrence by denial fails? 
  • If China succeeds in retaking Taiwan or inflicts a heavy loss on the US, it will increase China's domestic and international prestige, cementing its claim as a great power. The US faces credibility problems if it is reluctant to aid Taiwan or fails to stop China. 
  • Changes in Beijing's calculus ​​​​​​​
  1. The military balance in East Asia, especially around Taiwan Strait, favors China rather than the US. China's geographic advantage and technology capability can stop the US from assisting Taiwan. China also envisioned a strategy to retake Taiwan before the US and its allies could respond. 
  2. The cost of restraint (accepting the unresolved Taiwan problem) has increased for China. Taiwanese has increasingly rebuffed the idea of reunification with China. 
  3. China perceives the US pulling Taiwan away from the 1992 consensus, which is provocative to Beijing. 
  • The combined factors pushed China close to a Taiwan invasion and increased the cost of war to the US. 
  • The US can hinder China's military growth but not reverse the balance. Changing Taiwan's anti-unification stance or China's reunification goals is impossible. 
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