FP: 美國軍方是否有能力從烏克蘭戰爭中吸取教訓？（第一部分）

作者/Author(s): Raphael S. Cohen and Glan Gentile 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 02/02/2023 

主題/Key Topics : Military, Strategy, Future of War 


摘要:
雖然美國很少直接參與武裝衝突，但他們的國防支出很高，以確保美國保持在大國競爭中的優勢。因此，美軍只能透過向作戰中的盟友提供其武器儲備和建議，來評估其武器和理論的有效性。1973年的贖罪日戰爭就是一個前車之鑑，它提供機會讓美國檢驗其武器和戰術對蘇聯武裝軍隊的功效，美國根據該場戰爭設計了新的理論和訓練團。俄烏戰爭可以讓美國對 21 世紀的戰爭有另一種認識。
  • 由於烏克蘭人用反坦克武器和各種尺寸的無人機成功摧毀了俄羅斯的坦克，因此坦克在未來衝突中的作用可能有限。
  • 鑒於俄羅斯的巡洋艦和船隻損失慘重，這表示水面艦艇的生存能力可能較差，尤其是在與非海軍大國作戰時。烏克蘭人成功地使用了較小的無人艦艇，給美國提供一個替代海軍力量的可能性。 
  • 空軍專家最初預測俄羅斯將憑藉空中力量很快壓倒烏克蘭。然而，他們的預測錯了。因為俄羅斯未能佔據空優，烏克蘭空軍仍在敵方防空範圍內作戰。俄烏戰爭也凸顯了無人機在現代陸海空作戰中日益重要的角色。 
  • 俄烏戰爭也揭示了太空和網路衝突的可能性，以及私營公司在這些領域的參與。私營公司在保持烏克蘭軍隊聯網、提供關鍵情報和塑造全球公眾對衝突的看法方面發揮了關鍵作用。這場戰爭也證明了俄羅斯沒有能力發動成功的網路攻擊，讓人懷疑網路行動在現代戰爭中的有效性。 
Summary: 
The US is a big spender in defense to ensure it can prevail during a great power war, although it rarely participates in armed conflicts directly. Therefore, the US military can only evaluate the effectiveness of its weapons and doctrine by providing its weapon stocks and advice to friends in a war. The Yom Kippur War in 1973 was a previous example that allowed the US to examine the efficacy of its weapons and tactics against Soviet-armed militaries, and the US devised a new doctrine and training regiment based on the war. The Russo-Ukraine War could give the US another insight into 21st-century warfare.  
  • As Ukrainians successfully destroyed Russian tanks with anti-tank weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles of various sizes, tanks may have a limited role in a future conflict. 
  • Surface ships may have less survivability given Russia's heavy losses of cruisers and vessels, especially when going against a non-naval power. Ukrainians successfully used smaller unmanned ships, giving the US a fruit for thought on alternative methods of employing naval power.  
  • Air combat experts initially predicted Russian airpower would quickly overpower Ukraine. However, their prediction went wrong as Russia failed to dominate, and Ukrainian Air Force is still operating within the range of enemy air defenses. The Ukrainian War also highlighted the growing role of drones in modern land, sea, and air combats. 
  • The Ukrainian War unveiled the prospects of conflict in the space and cyberspace domain and the involvement of private companies in these domains. Private companies played crucial roles in keeping Ukrainian forces networked, providing critical intelligence, and shaping the public perception of the conflict worldwide. The war also demonstrated Russia's inability to launch successful cyberattacks, throwing doubt on cyber operations' effectiveness in modern warfare. 
 
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