The Atlantic: 打破中國的束縛 

The Atlantic

作者/Author(s): Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors 

原文來源/Source: The Atlantic 

日期/Date: 12/23/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Economic, Trade War 


摘要:
中國現在的目標是要在經濟規模上超過美國，但其也得減少對其他國家的依賴，並嘔過其龐大的經濟規模擴大對他國的經濟脅迫能力。美國必須了解習近平現在真正重視的，以及其背後的危險。通過了解習的意圖，並且採取相應行動修改美國的貿易政策，才能夠說服盟友減少對中國的依賴。 

習近平的願望、挑戰和前景 
  • 習近平認為，中國市場具有強大的吸引力，這讓北京有更強大的能力操縱產業供應鏈。中國國內政策和脅迫手段也讓中國的高科技產業得以蓬勃發展。 
  • 但在內政部分，習近平擔心中共政權無法有效控制國內，祭出一連串打壓國內私營公司發展的政策，此舉不僅降低了中國的經濟增長效率，其人口減少以及債務飆升問題，也加劇了習近平執政困境。 
  • 習近平也承認，美國不斷阻礙中國的技術發展，並將打擊重心放在中國比較弱的進口部分，以遏制中國的經濟增長。這可能導致美中兩國不可避免的脫鉤。 
  • 然而，習近平也很看好中國在全球供應鏈中的主導地位。他認為，中國是不可或缺的高價值產品生產國，特別是在加工礦物、基本藥物成分和電子產品方面。 
  • 中國的戰略經濟槓桿使中國企業能夠贏得比其他競爭者更大的市場份額，迫使外國生產商退出，也導致美國非工業化。 
與中國脫鉤 
  • 美國必須修改其經濟戰略來減少對中國的不對稱依賴，確保美國未來的經濟彈性。 
  • 美國可以將商品生產轉移到北美或從值得信賴的盟友那裡進口。 
  • 美國也必須修改其保護主義貿易政策並重新洽談自由貿易協定，以保護關鍵供應鍊和技術協議。但因為不少理念相近的國家都有與美國類似的擔憂，因此這應該不會很難談。 
 
Summary: 
While China still aims to surpass the U.S. in economic size, its current priority is to curtail dependence on other countries and amplify its economic coercion ability using its vast economy. The U.S. must understand the real danger of Xi’s current priorities, act accordingly by understanding Xi’s intention, and revise its trade policy to convince allies to rely less on China. 

Xi’s aspirations, challenges, and prospects 
  • Xi thinks that China can manipulate the supply chain to Beijing’s preference due to the compelling attraction of the Chinese market. China’s high-tech industry flourished through various domestic policies and coercion tactics. 
  • Domestically, Xi is shooting China’s economic growth down by constraining promising private companies’ progress due to fear that the CCP cannot control it. A demographic decline and soaring debt in China add to Xi’s woes. 
  • Xi also acknowledges that the U.S. contains China’s economic growth by impeding China’s technological development and directing the fire at its import vulnerabilities, which may lead to an inevitable decoupling. 
  • Yet, China’s dominance in the global supply chain makes Xi optimistic that China can be indispensable as a producer of high-value products, especially in processed minerals, basic pharmaceutical ingredients, and electronic goods. 
  • China’s strategic economic leverage allows Chinese firms to win a larger market share than other competitors, thus, forcing foreign producers out of business and causing deindustrialization in the U.S. 
Decoupling from China 
  • The U.S. must reduce its asymmetric dependence on China by revising its economic strategy to ensure future American economic resilience. 
  • The U.S. can shift the production of goods in North America or import from trusted allies. 
  • The U.S. must also revise its protectionist trade policy and update FTAs to protect critical supply chains and technology agreements. This action may succeed as some countries share similar concerns as the U.S. 
 
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