CSIS: 中國侵台的替代方案。第二部分:台灣應該如何自處?


作者/Author(s): Benjamin Jensen, Adrian Bogart, and Riley McCabe 

原文來源/Source: CSIS 

日期/Date: 10/07/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Military 



  • 未來的衝突將集中在空中、海上、網絡和太空動態上。中國將利用政治、經濟脅迫以及小規模軍事行動來威脅台灣,同時也能夠阻止外國干涉 
  • 儘管台灣及他的夥伴們可以避免與中國開戰,但全世界都將遭受嚴重的經濟影響 
  • 美國可以通過與中國的外交或非官方對話來控制衝突升級,而不是僅僅依靠軍事壓力來避免台海戰爭 

  • 美國政府可以創建一個涉及不同利益和機構的新型管理架構。這將補足其資訊情報的差距,也能夠協調其所擁有的權力工具。美國可以持續開發與中國的多軌外交,以了解他們將如何應對未來的危機。
  • 針對這個新型管理架構進行測試和分析,以了解他們可以使用的反應或威懾選項 
  • 舉行一系列反封鎖演習,以確定台灣部隊該如何準備,才能夠更好地對抗中國的封鎖 
  • 派遣跨部門團隊(如聯邦調查局和特勤局)幫助完善台灣的領導層級並保護政府的協議。這確保台灣的政治和軍事決策可以繼續進行即使在領導人被斬首的情況下 
  • 制定新的核武相關軍備控制制度,以減輕核升級和勒索 
The alternatives to a military invasion of Taiwan provide a few lessons: 
  • Future conflicts will be focused on air, maritime, cyber, and space dynamics. China will use political and economic coercions and small-scale military operations to threaten Taiwan and deter foreign intervention.
  • Although Taiwan and its partners can avoid a war with China, the world will suffer substantial economic consequences. 
  • The US can avoid a war over Taiwan through diplomatic or non-official dialogues with China to manage escalation and not rely solely on military pressure. 

Recommendations for the US: 
  • The US government can create a new escalation management framework involving different stakeholders and agencies. This will bridge information gaps and coordinate various national power instruments. The US can explore multitrack diplomacy with China to understand how they will react to future crises. 
  • Test and analyze the new escalation management framework to understand the responses or deterrent options that they can use. 
  • Hold a series of counter-blockade games to determine how Taiwan can prepare its forces better against China’s blockade. 
  • Send interagency teams (such as the FBI and Secret Service) to help refine Taiwan’s leadership hierarchy and protect the government’s protocol. This ensures Taiwan’s political and military decision-making can continue during a decapitation scenario. 
  • Frame a new nuclear arms control regime to mitigate nuclear escalation and blackmail.