FA: 漫長的台海博弈(Part 3)

作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date:  2023/1月和2月 

關鍵字/Key Topics : Grand Strategy, Taiwan Invasion, US-China-Taiwan Relations 

摘要:

正確以及充分地規劃對外政策 

  • 美國政府必須確保他們對東亞的武力投射是足夠的，這樣才能有效地保護到美國在台海的利益，但這之中又不能讓軍事作戰或規劃支配了他們的東亞大戰略。 
  • 美國對台政策的最高指導原則是維護台海的和平與穩定，因此他們盡可能延長中國的統一行動進程並確保台灣有足夠的韌性抵禦中國的威懾策略。 
  • 美國應該做甚麼： 
  1. 提高台灣在較脆弱領域對抗中國的能力。 
  2. 避免激怒中國，因此在提供台灣援助時要小心避開類似主權象徵的事務。 
  3. 集中於對台灣的實質幫助，而不公開挑戰北京統一台灣的想法。 
  4. 儲備大量不對稱武器，如反艦飛彈系統，增強並穩固印太地區的軍事態勢。
  5. 不要把台灣問題看成是威權主義和民主主義的較量，這只會影響美國政府精準做出決策。維護台海和平的真正挑戰不是政治制度，而是中國投射力量的提升和習近平的權力集中。 
平衡行動 
美方必須明確表明維護台海和平的意圖，同時調整支持的方式，以保持政策平衡。美國必須承諾他們將按照台灣人的意願，只接受和平解決兩岸衝突的辦法。除了台海和平之外，美國的另一個目標是增強台灣的信心，並向北京提出可信的反對其侵略台灣之意見。 
 
​​​​​​​Summary: 
Planning correctly and adequately
  • The U.S. must ensure it has enough force projection to protect its interest in the Taiwan Strait but not allow the military decision to dictate its overall plan. 
  • The final goal of the U.S.’s Taiwan policy should be to preserve Taiwan Strait’s peace and stability by prolonging China’s reunification timeline and ensuring Taiwan is resilient enough to withstand Chinese coercion tactics. 
  • The U.S. should: ​​​​​​​
  1. Improve Taiwan’s capacity to withstand Chinese pressure across all vulnerable domains.
  2. Avoid or reject calls to provide Taiwan with symbols of sovereignty to refrain from provoking China.
  3. Focus on concrete support for Taiwan without publicly challenging Beijing’s core narrative that reunification is imminent. 
  4. Increase credible military posture in the Indo-Pacific with a large number of asymmetric weaponry such as anti-surface and anti-ship missile systems. 
  5. Avoid viewing the Taiwan issues as a competition between authoritarianism and democracy, as it will hinder accurate decision-making. The real challenge in preserving peace in Taiwan Strait is not the political system but China’s improved capacity to project power and Xi’s concentration of power. 

Balancing act 

The U.S. must declare its intentions clearly to preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait and align its posture and support accordingly to maintain equilibrium. The U.S. must be committed to accepting only a peaceful resolution to the cross-strait conflict per the will of the Taiwanese. The final objectives of the U.S., besides peace in the Taiwan Strait, are to fortify Taiwanese confidence and present credible objections to Beijing of a Taiwan invasion.  

 
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