FA: 漫長的台海博弈(Part 1)

作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 2023/1月和2月 

主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Taiwan Invasion, US-China-Taiwan Relations 

摘要：

中國對台灣的侵略性不斷增加，這讓許多學者專家推測中國將在2024之前入侵台灣。這種說法讓美國陷入進退兩難的境地，因為台灣的安全是美國的切身利益。美國政府需要明白，他們的優先事項是維護一個和平和穩定的台灣海峽，而不是一次性地解決台灣問題。然後，美國可以說服中國和台灣，讓他們知道時間的重要性，並阻止雙方起衝突。美國必須理解中國的擔憂和考量，同時幫助台灣加強其在各個領域的安全，尤其是屬於灰色地帶的衝突事件。 

是什麼改變了台海的穩定？ 

  • 自從美國與中國關係正常化以來，美國不斷阻止台北單方面宣布獨立和北京強制統一，從中向雙方不斷保證這樣的情況會持續，以維持台灣海峽的和平。 
  • 美國的做法之所以奏效，是因為他在軍事上保持著對中國的優勢地位，並且即時處理任何可能導致兩岸衝突的導火線。除此之外，當時北京的主要關切是經濟發展和全球一體化，而不是奪回台灣。 
  • 然而，十幾年後，解放軍的能力得到顯著提高，他們有能力在中國周遭挑戰美國。習近平也願意挑戰任何一方來實現他的野心。而美國正在從維持現狀轉向專注於應對中國對台灣的威脅。 
第二部分將於下周(02/02)持續更新 
 
Summary: 
China’s increased aggressiveness against Taiwan hinted a Taiwan invasion would occur before 2024, putting the U.S. into a dilemma since Taiwan’s security is a vital interest for the U.S. The U.S. needs to understand its priority is to preserve a peaceful and stable Taiwan Strait, not resolve the Taiwan question once and for all. Then, the U.S. can persuade China and Taiwan that time is on their side and delaying deadly conflicts. The U.S. must understand China’s concerns and calculus while helping Taiwan to bolster its security across all spectrums, especially in grey-zone battles. 

What changed the Taiwan Strait’s stability? 
  • Since the U.S. normalized relations with China, it maintained Taiwan Strait’s peace by blocking unilateral Taipei’s declaration of independence and Beijing’s forced reunification with continuous assurance to both parties. 
  • U.S. efforts worked because it maintained a superior military lead over China and instantaneously dealt with any fuse that could lead to cross-strait conflicts. Meanwhile, Beijing’s primary concern was economic development and global integration and not retaking Taiwan. 
  • However, decades later, PLA’s capability dramatically improved and could challenge the U.S. in its proximity. Xi Jinping is also willing to challenge any party to achieve his ambitions. The U.S. is shifting away from maintaining the status quo and focusing on countering China’s threat to Taiwan. 
(To be continued in Part 2) 
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