FA: 美國能在新型世界大戰中取勝嗎?
  

作者/Author(s): Thomas G. Mahnken 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/27/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Military 

摘要：

隨著俄羅斯和中國在歐洲和亞太地區的敵意增加，美國可能會捲入一場雙線戰爭。美國長期以來將俄羅斯和中國視為結構性競爭對手，但是美國國防規劃沒有趕上當前的挑戰，軍事裝備也正在老化和消耗。根據估計，如果美國同時與俄羅斯和中國交戰，特別是當中國在西太平洋和印度洋擴大其影響力時，美國將在多個戰場上進行持久戰。美國必須擴大其國防工業基礎，發展新的作戰概念，並與盟友協調，以便在全球軍事衝突中取得優勢。 

儲備現代武器和彈藥 

  • 美國製造的武器系統品質和威力絕對掛保證。然而，他們的武器製造基地不多。除此之外，美國對烏克蘭戰事無限提供後援，使得美國自己的武器彈藥供應量急速減少。美國必須擴大其軍事工業基地並實現現代化生產，以達到更快速地儲備。 
  • 除了投入更多資源以增加產量外，美國國會也需要通過立法以確保其軍隊有最基礎的供應水平。
  • 美國軍方可以將無人系統與常規系統相結合，以提高戰鬥力並減緩現有系統的消耗。
  • 美國軍方可以將無人系統與常規系統相結合，以提高戰鬥力並減緩現有系統的消耗

創新作戰能力 
  • 開發新的作戰方法來抵禦對手的精準打擊系統，為前線部隊提供補給，並保護關鍵的作戰基地不受攻擊。 
  • 與盟國合作，提高威懾力以應對他國的入侵行為。 
  • 消除指揮結構上的約束與限制，對軍隊進行戰略調整和重組，以更靈活的方式來應對對手。 
行動的順序 
  • 即使中國對台灣的入侵失敗，俄羅斯繼續維持與歐洲的互動，美國仍然有可能在其他戰場上打一場持久戰。因此，美國需要考慮在不同的時刻和規模下他們要優先干預哪個戰區。 
  • 在歐洲，美國仍然可以依靠北約及其歐洲夥伴來緩衝俄羅斯的進攻行動。 
  • 美國在西太平洋更加脆弱，因為解放軍對地區秩序構成的威脅更大，而且亞太地區沒有類似北約的組織。除此之外，美國在西太平洋的軍事選擇有限，後勤保障也面臨挑戰。
  • 美國需要與盟友和台灣密切合作，阻止中國的常規和網路攻擊，這將會是漫長的做法。
  • 美國還必須與中國和俄羅斯溝通，了解彼此的紅線，避免越界。 
 
Summary: 
The U.S. may be involved in a war on two fronts with Russia and China increasing their hostility in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Although the U.S. targeted Russia and China as systemic rivals for a long time, its defense planning did not catch up with current challenges, and its military equipment is aging and depleting. Based on current estimations, the U.S. will fight a protracted war across multiple theatres if it engages Russia and China simultaneously, especially when China is expanding its influence in both Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. The U.S. must broaden its defense industrial base, develop new warfighting concepts, and coordinate with its allies to emerge superior during a global military conflict. 

Stockpiling modern weapons and ammunition 
  • U.S.’s manufactured weapons and systems are high-quality and potent. However, the weapons manufacturing base is limited, and its supplies are depleting with continuous provision to Ukraine. The U.S. must expand its military-industrial base and modernize production to stock up rapidly. 
  • Apart from investing more to increase production, the U.S. congress needs to pass legislation to ensure their military has a minimum supply level.
  • The U.S. military can integrate unmanned systems with their conventional ones to increase combat effectiveness and slow down the depletion of current systems. 
  • The U.S. must assist its closest allies in increasing and improving their defense industry to decrease reliance on U.S. munition stocks and enable them to fight a protracted war. 

Innovating warfighting capabilities 
  • Develop new ways to defend against adversary’s precision-strike systems, resupply frontline forces, and guard crucial bases of operations against attack. 
  • Cooperate with allies to improve deterrence against acts of aggression. 
  • Strategize and restructure the military by removing geographical constraints on the command structure, allowing a more flexible approach to dealing with an adversary. 
Order of operation 
  • The U.S. still risks fighting a protracted war across other theaters even if China’s invasion of Taiwan fails and Russia continues its operations in Europe. Therefore, the U.S. needs to prioritize to intervene in which theater at different moments and scales. 
  • In Europe, the U.S. can still rely on NATO and its European partners to slow Russia down. 
  • The U.S. is more vulnerable in the Western Pacific because the PLA poses a greater danger to the regional order, and there is no NATO-like organization in Asia-Pacific. Moreover, the U.S has limited military options in Western Pacific and will face challenging logistical support. 
  • The U.S. needs to work closely with its allies and Taiwan to stop Chinese conventional and cyber attacks, which may be lengthy. 
  • The U.S. also must communicate with China and Russia to understand each other’s red lines and avoid crossing the boundary. 
 
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