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FA:烏克蘭是如何重塑戰爭的

 

作者/Author(s): Lauren Kahn 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/29/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Technology, Military Strategy

摘要：

俄羅斯認為他們可以用一支龐大、裝備精良、經驗豐富的軍隊迅速推翻澤倫斯基政府。結果卻是相反的，俄羅斯發現自己身處泥潭，需要保護其當前的戰利品以對抗烏克蘭的打擊企圖。俄羅斯軍隊的無能、西方對烏克蘭的支持以及烏克蘭人的堅定決心，都發揮了最佳的作用，讓烏克蘭屢次獲得成功。除此之外，我們必須稱讚烏克蘭人對技術的創造性再利用。他們透過簡單的技術，把廉價或者方便的東西，變成連平民都可以操作的致命武器。烏克蘭的成功改變了現代戰爭的進行方式。 

戰爭的新篇章 

  • 儘管土耳其製造的無人機 Bayraktar TB2 價格低廉、容易被發現，而且速度較慢，但它們贏過了俄羅斯的防空系統。 
  1. TB2 對速度較慢和靜止的目標具有致命的殺傷力，迫使俄羅斯撤退。 
  2. TB2 用於偵察任務和裝成誘餌，以擊沉俄羅斯船隻。 
  • AI人工智慧首創 
  1. 羅斯使用人工智慧技術進行網路攻擊、傳播虛假信息並進行親俄宣傳。 
  2. 烏克蘭利用人工智慧技術來識別俄羅斯特工，剔除錯誤訊息，並預測俄羅斯的戰略。 
  • 私營部門以及學術單位的貢獻 
  1. 製造各式無人機來執行機密戰術行動或監視。 
  • 來自數位世界的朋友 
  1. 同情烏克蘭的駭客們幫助烏克蘭一同攻擊俄羅斯網站。 
  2. 私人衛星擁有者允許烏克蘭訪問其網路，以獲得高品質的衛星地圖並提供公開來源的情報。 
  3. 主要科技公司被迫退出俄羅斯。 
  4. 烏克蘭人使用社交媒體影片向軍方提供情報。 

烏克蘭就是一個大型實驗場 
  • 烏克蘭在技術融入常規戰爭方面獲得大量的成功，這也推動了TB2和美國製造的Switchblades閒置彈藥的銷售。
  • 烏克蘭將獲得源源不斷的閒置彈藥供應，以檢驗其在實戰中的能量。 
  • 儘管人工智慧技術尚未成熟，在戰鬥中的用途也有限，但俄羅斯可能會在烏克蘭加快行動並測試其人工智慧的軍事能力。 
  • 社交網路系統遍布全球人口，透過社交媒體將軍事力量擴展出去，並引領全球網民聯合起來反對俄羅斯。 
  • 烏克蘭向全球證明了，有效和創造性地使用技術，可以打破常規的軍事力量。 
 

 

Summary: 

Russia thought it could topple Zelensky’s government swiftly with a large, better armed, and experienced army. Instead, Russia finds itself in a quagmire and needs to secure its current spoils of war against Ukraine’s reclamation attempts. Russia’s military incompetence, Western support of Ukraine, and Ukrainian’s sheer determination played roles in Ukraine’s success. However, some credit must be given to Ukrainian’s creative utilization of technology, turning inexpensive and convenient technologies into lethal weapons that even ordinary civilians can operate. Ukraine success changes how modern wars are conducted. 

A new page in warfare 

  • Although Turkish-made drones, Bayraktar TB2, were inexpensive, easily detected, and slow, they outplayed Russian air defenses. 
  1. TB2 was lethally effective against slower and static targets, forcing Russia to retreat.
  2. TB2 was used for reconnaissance missions and decoys that sunk Russian ships. 
  • A first for artificial intelligence (AI) 
  1. Russia used AI to conduct cyberattacks, spread disinformation, and publicize pro-Russian propaganda.  
  2. Ukraine used AI to recognize Russian operatives, weed-out misinformation, and predict Russia’s strategy. 
  • Contribution from the private and academic sector 
  1. Toy drones were fabricated for carrying out covert and tactical operations or surveillance. 
  • Friends from the digital world 
  1. Hackers sympathizing with Ukraine helped attack Russian websites. 
  2. Private satellite owners allowed Ukraine to access its network for high-quality satellite imagery and providing open-source intelligence. 
  3. Major technology companies were pressured to withdraw from Russia.  
  4. Ukrainians provided intel to the military using social media videos. ​​​​​​​

Ukraine as an experiment laboratory 
  • Ukraine’s success in integrating technology into conventional warfare pushed the sales of TB2 and US-made Switchblades loitering munitions.  
  • Ukraine will receive a continuous supply of loitering munitions to test their effectiveness in actual combat. 
  • Although AI has yet to mature and has limited use in combat, Russia may hasten and test its AI-enabled military capabilities in Ukraine. 
  • The social network system diffused military power among the global population, causing global netizens to unite against Russia. 
  • Ukraine demonstrated that using technology effectively and creatively could upset the balance of conventional forces. ​​​​​​​
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