FP: 裴洛西的台灣政策只是適得其反


作者/Author(s): Craig Singleton 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/26/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Foreign Policy





Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which aims to show US’s commitments to Taiwan, attained bipartisan support in the US despite the White House and the US Department of Defense objecting to the timing of the visit. Consequently, Beijing held military drills around Taiwan after Pelosi left, and Biden downplayed the visit’s importance while reassuring China about the “One-China” policy. Beijing had waited for an excuse to increase its hostility, and Pelosi’s visit gave China a perfect chance. China will undoubtedly punish Taiwan if high-level exchanges happen in Taipei or the US disregards the “One China” policy, especially after Biden’s recurrent misinterpretation of the Taiwan Relations Act and promises Taiwan military aid if China invades.  
The PLA clearly defined its scope, aim, and plan of military drills to inflict physical and psychological deterrence on Taiwan and its close partners. The military exercise intimidated foreign firms in Taiwan, and they are considering relocating. Further, while ASEAN pleaded for a peaceful resolution after the drill, they avoided mentioning “Taiwan” or “China,” and India went silent.  
The possibility of miscalculating in the Taiwan Strait increased after US intelligence failed to predict the aftermath of Pelosi’s visit accurately. Adding fuel to the fire, Beijing suspended crucial communications with the US, and PLA operated nearer to Taiwan’s shore. China-US-Taiwan relations will not return to the previous high, and the current situation in Taiwan Strait will be a new normal. 


To deter China before it gets out of hand, Washington needs to increase its military projection in East Asia and quickly provide defensive armanents to Taiwan. The US also need to give meaningful support to Taipei instead of holding symbolic exchanges and restrain from retaliating every Beijing’s provocation. Biden and Xi Jinping should build a consensus to curtail current tensions to avert war in Taiwan Strait while tending to both parties’ values and strategic aims.