作者/Author(s): Craig Singleton 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/26/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Foreign Policy

摘要：

裴洛西對台灣的訪問旨在表明美國對台灣的承諾，雖然白宮和美國國防部反對這次訪問的時間，但兩黨都支持訪台的行動。北京在裴洛西離開後舉行了為台軍演，而拜登則淡化了這次訪問的重要性，同時向中國保證美國的「一個中國」政策。北京一直在等一個名正言順增加敵意的藉口，而裴洛西的訪問給了中國絕佳的機會。如果美國高層持續與台北來往，或美國無視「一個中國」政策，中國一定會藉機懲罰台灣。特別是在拜登總統反覆曲解《台灣關係法》並承諾如果中國入侵時台灣會提供軍事援助之後，中國對台的敵意只會更強。 
解放軍明確規定了其軍事演習的範圍、目的和計劃，以對台灣及其親密夥伴造成物質和心理上的威懾。持續的圍台軍演嚇壞了設址在台的外商公司，他們正在考慮搬到其他更穩定的國家。而東協雖然在演習後懇求和平解決兩岸衝突，但他們避免提及「台灣」或「中國」，而印度則保持沉默。 
在美國情報部門未能準確預測裴洛西訪問的後果後，台灣海峽出現誤判的可能性增加。雪上加霜的是，北京中斷了與美國的重要通訊管道，並且讓解放軍在靠近台灣岸邊的地方行動。美中台關係不會恢復到以前的高點了，而目前的台灣海峽局勢將是一種新常態。
為了在中國失控之前對其進行威懾，華盛頓需要增加其在東亞的軍事投射並盡快向台灣提供防禦性武器。美國也需要更有意義地支持台北的行動，而不是進行象徵性的交流，並克制不對北京的每一次挑釁進行報復。拜登和習近平應達成共識，遏制當前的緊張局勢，避免台海發生戰爭，同時符合雙方的價值觀和戰略目標。 
 

Summary: 

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which aims to show US’s commitments to Taiwan, attained bipartisan support in the US despite the White House and the US Department of Defense objecting to the timing of the visit. Consequently, Beijing held military drills around Taiwan after Pelosi left, and Biden downplayed the visit’s importance while reassuring China about the “One-China” policy. Beijing had waited for an excuse to increase its hostility, and Pelosi’s visit gave China a perfect chance. China will undoubtedly punish Taiwan if high-level exchanges happen in Taipei or the US disregards the “One China” policy, especially after Biden’s recurrent misinterpretation of the Taiwan Relations Act and promises Taiwan military aid if China invades.  
The PLA clearly defined its scope, aim, and plan of military drills to inflict physical and psychological deterrence on Taiwan and its close partners. The military exercise intimidated foreign firms in Taiwan, and they are considering relocating. Further, while ASEAN pleaded for a peaceful resolution after the drill, they avoided mentioning “Taiwan” or “China,” and India went silent.  
The possibility of miscalculating in the Taiwan Strait increased after US intelligence failed to predict the aftermath of Pelosi’s visit accurately. Adding fuel to the fire, Beijing suspended crucial communications with the US, and PLA operated nearer to Taiwan’s shore. China-US-Taiwan relations will not return to the previous high, and the current situation in Taiwan Strait will be a new normal.