The Economist:台灣會成為亞洲的烏克蘭嗎?


作者/Author(s): Roger McShane 

原文來源/Source: The Economist 

日期/Date: 11/18/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Defense, Sovereignty 


台灣海峽兩岸的現狀正在崩解,這增加了中國入侵台灣的機率和風險。與毛澤東以外的前任不同,習近平強調台灣統一是他的霸業,並可能在 2027 年任期結束前動用武力奪回台灣 


  • 美國增加了對台灣的互動和聲音支持,使中國認為美國正在擺脫戰略上的模糊性。然而,美國認為若缺少對台灣的支持,會破壞美國確保亞太穩定的決心。 
  • 在台灣,越來越少的人相信中國「一國兩制」的承諾,拒絕與中國統一 

  • 中國的軍事能力越來越強,增加了台灣的危險。然而,烏克蘭戰爭可能會改變所有參與者的計算 
  • 美方希望台灣堅定自衛,採取更好的戰略,特別是針對「豪豬戰略」。 
  • 中國仍然認為他們可以不必入侵台灣就達到兩岸統一,如果別無選擇,他們才會訴諸武力。但是,中國會從烏克蘭戰爭中吸取教訓,避免重蹈俄羅斯的覆轍,尤其是在中國必須越過台灣海峽對台灣發動進攻的情況下。 
The status quo across the Taiwan Strait is crumbling, thereby increasing the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Unlike his predecessors, except for Mao Zedong, Xi Jinping emphasized Taiwan reunification as his legacy and may use force to retake Taiwan before his tenure ends in 2027.  

Changes in the status quo 
  • The U.S. increased its interaction and vocal support to Taiwan, making China believe the U.S. is shifting away from strategic ambiguity. However, the U.S. sees a lack of support for Taiwan undermines U.S.’s resolve to secure Asia-Pacific’s stability. 
  • In Taiwan, fewer people believe China’s promise of “one country, two systems” and rejects reunification with China. 

Is Taiwan in danger? 
  • China’s military potential is getting stronger, increasing the danger for Taiwan. However, the Ukraine War may change the calculus for all actors.  
  • The U.S. hopes Taiwan can be steadfast in its self-defense with a better strategy, primarily focusing on the “porcupine strategy” of a large number of small things. 
  • China still thinks a Taiwan invasion can be avoided but will resort to force if they run out of options. However, China will draw observations from the Ukraine war to avoid Russia’s mistake, especially when China must cross the Taiwan strait to launch an attack on Taiwan.