War on the Rocks: 美國印太戰略與歐洲北約息息相關
作者/Author(s): Luis Simon
原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks
日期/Date: 12/16/2022
主題/Key Topics : Indo-Pacific Strategy
摘要:
目前美國面臨兩條戰線的大國競爭，一是在烏克蘭擊敗俄羅斯，二是在印太地區牽制中國。鑑於美國的資源有限，一個地區的過度優先導致其他地區的次序往後排，這給美國造成戰略困境。美國高度重視歐洲和印太地區，因為這些地區具有極高的資源潛力，任何大國只要善加利用都可能對美國產生威脅。儘管俄羅斯在俄烏危機上面臨失敗的風險，但它仍然擁有未來可以威脅歐洲和美國安全的軍事潛力。然而，中國的解放軍現代化和強硬態度對美國在西太平洋的軍事投射構成了長期重大挑戰。大多數國家還與北京有著深厚的經濟和外交關係。綜上所述，美國在印太地區面臨權力平衡的挑戰，在歐洲也要處理穩定問題，這在戰略上將印太區域置於更高的位置，使兩個地區的命運更加複雜。
儘管歐洲的目前的權力平衡是穩定的，但它面臨著一些內外部的地緣政治挑戰，這讓歐洲各國必須仰賴與美國的友好關係。俄烏危機更凸顯了美國在歐洲的政治和軍事領導地位的重要性，因為如果沒有美國的幫助，烏克蘭無法打出這樣的戰局。換句話說，美國不能在俄烏危機結束後放棄歐洲，並且只關注直接來自於中國的威脅，尤其是在俄羅斯仍然擁有核武器並可以重建軍隊的情況下。在烏克蘭取得勝利可以幫助歐洲建立防禦能力並減輕美國在北約的負擔。如果美國在沒有穩定歐洲的情況下重新拾起印太地區的優先重點，這只會惡化美國在這兩個地區的安全結構，從而使美國需要更多的戰略資源來應對未來的挑戰。因此，華盛頓在歐洲的成功才是最符合美國、歐洲和印太國家的利益。
儘管歐洲的目前的權力平衡是穩定的，但它面臨著一些內外部的地緣政治挑戰，這讓歐洲各國必須仰賴與美國的友好關係。俄烏危機更凸顯了美國在歐洲的政治和軍事領導地位的重要性，因為如果沒有美國的幫助，烏克蘭無法打出這樣的戰局。換句話說，美國不能在俄烏危機結束後放棄歐洲，並且只關注直接來自於中國的威脅，尤其是在俄羅斯仍然擁有核武器並可以重建軍隊的情況下。在烏克蘭取得勝利可以幫助歐洲建立防禦能力並減輕美國在北約的負擔。如果美國在沒有穩定歐洲的情況下重新拾起印太地區的優先重點，這只會惡化美國在這兩個地區的安全結構，從而使美國需要更多的戰略資源來應對未來的挑戰。因此，華盛頓在歐洲的成功才是最符合美國、歐洲和印太國家的利益。
Summary:
Currently, the US faces great-power competition on two fronts, defeating Russia in Ukraine and containing China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Given the US’s limited resources, over-prioritization in one region will lead to deprioritization in the other, creating a strategic dilemma for the US. The US focused heavily on Europe and Indo-Pacific because these areas have the resource potential for any power to exploit them and threaten the US. Although Russia is on the brink of defeat in Ukraine, it still possesses a military potential that can threaten Europe and the US’s security in the future. However, China’s military modernization and assertiveness pose a significant long-term challenge to the US’s military projection in the Western Pacific. Most countries also have profound economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing. In sum, the US has a balance of power challenge in the Indo-Pacific and a stability problem in Europe, which strategically puts the Indo-Pacific in a higher position and complicates the fate of both regions.
Although Europe’s balance of power is stable now, it faces several internal and external geopolitical challenges that require constant engagement with the US. The Ukrainian crisis also highlighted the importance of the US’s political and military leadership in Europe, as Ukraine cannot push Russia back without US’s assistance. Therefore, the US cannot afford to focus directly on China’s threat while abandoning Europe after defeating Russia, especially when Russia still possesses nuclear weapons and can rebuild its military. However, a victory in Ukraine can help Europe to build its defense capability and reduce US’s burden in NATO. If the US reprioritizes the Indo-Pacific without stabilizing Europe, it will deteriorate its security structure, require more strategic resources to address future challenges, and distract itself. Thus, Washington’s success in Europe is best for the interest of the US, Europe, and Indo-Pacific countries.
Although Europe’s balance of power is stable now, it faces several internal and external geopolitical challenges that require constant engagement with the US. The Ukrainian crisis also highlighted the importance of the US’s political and military leadership in Europe, as Ukraine cannot push Russia back without US’s assistance. Therefore, the US cannot afford to focus directly on China’s threat while abandoning Europe after defeating Russia, especially when Russia still possesses nuclear weapons and can rebuild its military. However, a victory in Ukraine can help Europe to build its defense capability and reduce US’s burden in NATO. If the US reprioritizes the Indo-Pacific without stabilizing Europe, it will deteriorate its security structure, require more strategic resources to address future challenges, and distract itself. Thus, Washington’s success in Europe is best for the interest of the US, Europe, and Indo-Pacific countries.