編輯器
War on the Rocks: 注意界線：中國的民用航運如何協助解放軍入侵台灣
 
 

作者/Author(s): Thomas Shugart 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: Part 1: 08/16/2021; Part 2: 10/12/2022 

關鍵字/Key Topics: Military logistics, Civil-military integration 

摘要:

美國政府官員和學者預測中國將在十年內（或更短時間內）入侵台灣。中國需要強大而高效的兩棲運輸能力才能成功入侵台灣，而解放軍目前缺乏這種能力。然而，仔細研究近期的解放軍軍演會發現，中國有能力也有意願，將民用航運納入以提高解放軍的海運能力。 

中國民用船隻的優點： 

  • 雖然民用渡船可能無法抵禦攻擊，但海軍可以為其護航，或在解放軍奪取合適的登陸點後充當支援。 
  • 中國民間造船企業願意根據北京的國防技術標準建造軍民兩用的滾裝船。 
  • 中國已經開始將民用航運納入解放軍的支援部隊。
  • 中國定期將民用渡輪納入入侵演習，並試圖直接從這些渡輪上發射兩棲突擊載具。 
  •  中國擁有最突出的商業造船業，可以生產排水量極高的渡輪。中國甚至利用私營航運公司進行海運物流。 
  • 民用渡輪體積龐大，所以他們可以在短距離內高效地運送人員和車輛。 
  • 民用渡輪現在雖然主要在解放軍南北戰區運作，但也可以迅速調動到東部戰區協助攻台。 
  • 截至2022年，中國可以在第一波海運中用其軍事和民用船隻運送價值超過8個重型旅的裝備和6萬名士兵。 在大約十天內，中國可以運送七個整編集團軍。 

美國和台灣可以做甚麼? 
  • 台灣和美國應部署更耐用和精準的反艦武器，以確定和精確定位軍用和兩用兩棲船隻。 
  • 美國需要重新考慮交戰規則、重組指揮和控制結構，以確保台灣和美國能夠在戰鬥中打擊中國的兩用船隻。 
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Summary:  

​​​​​​​US government officials and academicians predicted China will invade Taiwan within the decade (or less). China needs a large and efficient amphibious transport capacity for a successful Taiwan invasion, which is currently lacking within the PLA. However, China is willing to include civilian shipping to support the PLA, as demonstrated in recent military exercises, improving its sealift capability.

The pros of China’s civilian vessels: 
  • Although civilian ferries may not defend themselves against attacks, the navy can escort them or act as support after the PLA has seized suitable landing points. 
  • Chinese civilian shipbuilders are willing to construct dual-use roll-on/roll-off ferries based on Beijing’s technical standards for national defense. 
  • China has already begun integrating civilian shipping into PLA’s support units. 
  • China regularly conducted invasion drills with civilian ferries and attempted to launch amphibious assault vehicles directly from them. 
  • China has the most prominent commercial shipbuilding industry that can produce large-displacement ferries. China even used private shipping companies for its maritime logistics. 
  • Civilian ferries can transport people and vehicles efficiently over a short range, given their large size. 
  • Although civilian ferries operate mainly in PLA’s Northern and Southern Theater Command, they can quickly mobilize to the Eastern Theater for Taiwan invasion. 
  • As of 2022, China can deliver more than eight heavy brigades worth of equipment and 60,000 soldiers in the first sealift wave with its combined military and civil vessels. In about ten days, China can deliver seven whole Group Armies. 

What Taiwan and the US can do? 
  • Taiwan and the US should deploy more durable and smart anti-ship armaments to determine and pinpoint military and dual-use amphibious vessels. 
  • The US needs to rethink the rule of engagement and restructure the command-and-control structure to ensure Taiwan and the US can strike Chinese dual-use vessels during combat. 
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