War on the Rocks: 第四次台海危機才剛開始


作者/Author(s): Christopher P. Twomey 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks (Texas National Security Review) 


主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy, Foreign Policy




  • 北京、華盛頓和台北相互發送和接收信號,並得到結論:必須要表明決心 
  • 根據安全困境的觀點,中國對一些簡單問題的誇張反應,會促使台灣與其他國家的接觸更加緊密 
  • 中國認為美國正在使用「切香腸戰術」背離「一個中國政策」,而這已經嚴重威脅到北京的戰略利益 
  • 就像西方對俄羅斯的制裁一樣,北京正在等待其經濟脅迫對台灣產生影響 
  • 美國將加強其在台灣周邊的存在,以警告解放軍不要挑戰其權威 
  • 如果這三個角色都加劇了軍事活動,北京官僚和僵化的政治制度將無法做出相應反應,從而使局勢變得危險 
  • 中共面臨壓力,必須達到其鞏固中國領土的期望,尤其是在台灣方面 
  • 美國兩黨都支持對中國保持敵對態度 
  • 大多數台灣人認為自己是台灣人而不是中國人,民進黨致力於增加台灣的國際影響力,使兩岸關係進一步複雜化 
  • 解放軍還沒有做好兩棲攻擊的準備,中國也沒有大規模軍事動員的跡象,但其會繼續展示其武力
  • 人為錯誤和誤解反對派的軍事意圖可能會導致意外升級 
  • 北京和華盛頓之間的相互猜忌加劇了衝突,尤其是在美中關係迅速惡化的情況下 
  • 由於軍事有利於中國和軍國主義民族主義,台灣受到威脅。美國無法在不激怒中國的情況下解決這個問題,但通過向台灣提供現實的防禦裝備來平衡兩岸的軍事力量將具有戰略利益。 
The author believes the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis began when China conducted military exercises around Taiwan in retaliation to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. On closer scrutinization, this crisis is sparked by deteriorating US-China relations and closer US-Taiwan relations that upset China. The problem will likely prolong due to the domestic politics of all three actors and will mark a turning point in US-China relations. All the actors involved may misperceive and miscalculate the situation, escalating the crisis. The leaders should mitigate the crisis through moderate and careful diplomacy. 

External Factors 
  • Beijing, Washington, and Taipei sent and received signals from each other and concluded that a show of resolve was inevitable. 
  • Under the security dilemma interpretation, China’s exaggerated response to some simple issues drives closer engagement between Taiwan and other countries. 
  • China determined that the US is threatening Beijing's strategic interest by turning away from the “One-China Policy” through salami-slicing tactics. 
  • Like Western sanctions on Russia, Beijing is waiting for its economic coercion to work against Taiwan. 
  • The US will increase its presence around Taiwan to warn PLA against challenging its authority. 
  • If all three actors aggravate military activities, Beijing’s bureaucratic and inflexible political system cannot respond accordingly, making the situation hazardous. 

Domestic Political Factors 
  • CCP is pressured to live up to its expectations of consolidating China’s territory, especially regarding Taiwan. 
  • The US has bipartisan support for keeping a hostile manner towards China. 
  •  Most Taiwanese identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and the DPP commits to increasing Taiwan’s international presence, further complicating cross-strait relations. 

Risk of escalation 
  • PLA is not ready for amphibious assault, and there is no sign of mass military mobilization in China, but the show of force will continue. 
  • Accidental escalation can happen from human errors and misinterpreting the opposition’s military intentions. 
  • Mutual suspicion between Beijing and Washington intensified the conflict, especially with the rapid deterioration of US-China relations. 
  • Taiwan is threatened due to the foundational military favoring China and militarist nationalism. The US cannot solve this problem without angering China, but it will have strategic benefits by providing Taiwan with realistic defense equipment to balance the cross-strait military capabilities.