編輯器
War on the Rocks: 群龍無首、孤立無援：俄烏危機後台灣面臨風險 


摘要：
俄羅斯在俄烏危機中的失敗可能會阻礙中國實現台灣強制統一的目標。相反，中國可能會訴諸威脅最大化的方式以阻止美國的軍事干預，並果斷拿下台灣。可能的行動方案包括核威脅、封鎖台灣以及削弱台灣的政治和軍事領導層。這些行動會給美國及其盟友帶來兩難境地，削弱台灣的抵抗意願和能力，並最大程度地增加解放軍的勝利機會。 

核武威脅升級 
  • 核武器經常在大國衝突中發揮作用，尤其是在常規方法失效的情況下。 
  • 核武器經常在大國衝突中發揮作用，尤其是在常規方法失效的情況下。 
  • 核武器經常在大國衝突中發揮作用，尤其是在常規方法失效的情況下。 
封鎖台灣
  • 中國可以憑藉其強大的海空軍輕易扼住台灣，使補給難度變得很高。 
  • 短期內，封鎖台灣可以餓死反抗勢力，並阻止他們獲得防禦性武器。從長遠來看，一旦台灣安全問題解除了，中國就可以阻礙外部抵抗力量。 
  • 以封鎖開始入侵台灣讓中國占了上風，會使美國及其盟友感到無所適從，使反制措施無效並讓中國準備好其入侵力量。 
削弱台灣領導人的地位 
  • 中國可以儘早消滅台灣的政治和軍事領導人，使防禦變得困難並使台灣公民士氣低落，從而允許迅速入侵。
解放軍的相關學說理論對上述行動有明確的指示。然而，美國戰略家無法預測這些步驟的時間和順序，這使他們陷入困境。所以，儘管風險很高，但快速果斷的反制措施將減少中國獲勝的機會。 

Summary: 
Russia’s failure in the Ukraine invasion may hamper China’s aim of Taiwan’s forced reunification. On the contrary, China may resort to threat maximization to prevent US’s military intervention and take Taiwan decisively. The possible courses of action involve nuclear threats, blockading Taiwan, and crippling Taiwanese political and military leadership. These actions can cause dilemmas for the US and its allies, corrode Taiwan’s willingness and capacity to resist, and maximize PLA’s chance for victory. 

Nuclear Escalation 
  • Nuclear weapons often play a role in great power conflicts, especially if conventional methods fail. 
  • Russia put its strategic forces on standby to deter assistance for Ukraine. Although it did not stop the West from providing arms and intelligence, the US delayed a nuclear test and avoided direct military intervention. 
  • China may use similar tactics to show its determination and create a security dilemma for its opponents, deterring direct military assistance for Taiwan. 
Blockading Taiwan
  • China can easily choke Taiwan with its superior air force and navy, making resupply near impossible.  
  • In the short term, blockading Taiwan can starve resisters and prevent them from obtaining defensive armaments. China can hinder external resistance forces in the long run once it secures Taiwan. 
  • Starting Taiwan’s invasion with a blockade gives China an upper hand to confuse the US and its allies, making countermeasures ineffective and allowing China to prepare its invasion forces. 
Crippling Taiwan’s leadership 
  • China can eliminate Taiwan’s political and military leaders early, making defense difficult and demoralizing Taiwanese citizens, thus allowing a swift invasion. 
PLA’s doctrine has a clear indication of the actions above. However, US strategists cannot predict the timing and sequencing of the steps, putting them in a predicament. Despite high risks, fast and decisive countermeasures will reduce China’s chances of victory. 
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