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Politico: Why Germany won't get tough on Beijing-even if It invades Taiwan

作者/Author(s): Matthew Karnitschnig 

原文來源/Source: Politico EU 

日期/Date: August 12, 2022 

主題/Key Topics : Economy, Foreign Policy

摘要： 

 

在俄烏危機中，德國不願制裁俄羅斯，這令其盟國感到失望。如果中國最終入侵台灣，柏林由於出口和供應鏈對中國的高度依賴，不太可能跟隨美國和其他西方盟友懲罰中國。儘管德國的不情願會損害其國際信譽，但他們也不會冒經濟繁榮的風險，擺脫對中國的依賴比擺脫對俄羅斯的依賴更難。制裁俄羅斯對德國經濟的損害有限，但制裁中國並非如此。

  • 德國暫停了北溪二號天然氣管道項目，但試圖通過拒絕全面禁運俄羅斯天然氣來保證德國的能源安全。 
  • 然而，俄羅斯減少其對歐洲的天然氣出口量，威脅到一些關鍵行業，並導致德國的高通膨。 
  • 然而，俄羅斯減少其對歐洲的天然氣出口量，威脅到一些關鍵行業，並導致德國的高通膨。 
  • 中國占德國對外貿易的10%左右，幾十年來一直推動德國經濟增長。 
  • 中國對德國經濟至關重要。德國生產的汽車中約有三分之一在中國銷售，德國汽車製造商在中國也有大型基地。 
  • 中國對德國經濟至關重要。德國生產的汽車中約有三分之一在中國銷售，德國汽車製造商在中國也有大型基地。 
  • 中國正在減少對歐洲市場的依賴，而歐盟卻越來越依賴中國。因此，減少德國對中國的依賴將是一項挑戰。 
 
Summary: 
Germany has disappointed its allies with its reluctance in sanctioning Russia amid the Ukrainian Crisis. If China ultimately invades Taiwan, it is unlikely that Berlin will follow the US and other Western allies in punishing China due to its high export and supply chain dependence on China. Although Germany’s reluctance will damage its international credibility, Germany will not risk its economic prosperity, and it is harder to disentangle its reliance on China than on Russia. The Russian sanctions have limited damage to Germany’s economy, but that is not the case with China. 
  • Germany suspended the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project but tried to guarantee Germany’s energy security by refusing a complete Russian gas embargo. 
  • However, Russia has reduced natural gas output to Europe, threatening some critical industries and causing high inflation in Germany. 
  • Germany will not risk aggravating its stagnating economy with another sanction, especially on China. 
  • China accounts for around 10% of Germany’s foreign trade and has driven Germany’s economic growth for decades. 
  • China is imperative for Germany’s economy. Around one-third of Germany-produced cars were sold in China, and German carmakers have large bases in China itself. 
  • Other export sectors, such as chemicals and machinery, directly relied on the Chinese market. 
  • China is reducing its dependence on the European market, but the EU is increasingly dependent on China. Therefore, it will be challenging to limit Germany’s reliance on China. 
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