編輯器
FA: 保衛台灣的時間越來越少了
What the US should do:
作者/Author(s): Michele Flournoy and Michael Brown
原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 09/14/2022
主題/Key Topics: Technology, Military
摘要:
儘管機會減少，但習近平並沒有放棄他的統一台灣大業，因此增加了中國入侵台灣的可能性。既然美國和中國在台灣問題上都不會退讓，那麼美國必須加強軍事力量，協助台灣實現自主防衛能力的現代化。拜登的新國防戰略側重於 「綜合威懾」(Integrated Deterrence) (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2954945/integrated-deterrence-at-center-of-upcoming-national-defense-strategy/) ，通過使用國家力量的所有要素來防止不同地區和領域的未來衝突，甚至在外太空和網路空間，但其實施和採用的速度很慢。中國通過與私營公司合作和研究美國的能力等方式來實現解放軍的現代化，使其在A2/AD能力方面具有優勢。儘管美國增加了在印太地區的軍事投射，但他們必須更快地部署廣泛的現代軍備來威懾中國。
美國應該做甚麼：
- 五角大樓需要確定其當前的能力，並採購到 2027 年威懾中國所需的武器。
- 解決當前美台軍隊對抗解放軍的短板。
- 與五角大樓的創新部門、私人國防和商業部門緊密合作，盡快部署現代軍事裝備。
- 通過部署許多用於情報、監視和偵察行動的微型自主系統，提高印太地區的狀況覺知能力。
- 美國轟炸機上安裝遠程攻船飛彈，阻止解放軍海軍穿越台灣海峽。
- 加快和擴大對台安全援助，完善「豪豬戰略」。
- 加快採用能夠解決關鍵作戰問題的民用或兩用技術。
- 現代化並減少官僚政治以加快採購程序。
- 與美國的盟友合作，為軍方採購關鍵或經過驗證的技術。
Summary:
Xi Jinping has not abandoned his dream of Taiwan reunification despite waning opportunities, increasing the probability of a Taiwan invasion. Since the US and China will not back down on the Taiwan issue, the US must strengthen its military power and assist Taiwan in modernizing its self-defense abilities. Biden’s new National Defense Strategy focused on “integrated deterrence” by using all elements of national power to prevent future conflicts in different regions and domains, even in outer space and cyberspace, but implementation and adoption are slow. China has modernized the PLA by cooperating with private companies and studying US’s capacity, giving it an edge in A2/AD capabilities. Although the US has increased its military projection in the Indo-Pacific region, it must deploy extensive modern armaments faster to deter China.
Xi Jinping has not abandoned his dream of Taiwan reunification despite waning opportunities, increasing the probability of a Taiwan invasion. Since the US and China will not back down on the Taiwan issue, the US must strengthen its military power and assist Taiwan in modernizing its self-defense abilities. Biden’s new National Defense Strategy focused on “integrated deterrence” by using all elements of national power to prevent future conflicts in different regions and domains, even in outer space and cyberspace, but implementation and adoption are slow. China has modernized the PLA by cooperating with private companies and studying US’s capacity, giving it an edge in A2/AD capabilities. Although the US has increased its military projection in the Indo-Pacific region, it must deploy extensive modern armaments faster to deter China.
What the US should do:
- The Pentagon needs to identify its current capabilities and procure the weapons required to deter China by 2027.
- Address the current shortcomings of the US and Taiwan’s military against the PLA.
- Work closely with the innovation department in the Pentagon, private defense, and commercial sector to deploy modern military equipment soon.
- Increase situational awareness in the Indo-Pacific by fielding many miniature autonomous systems for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations.
- Arm US bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles to stop the PLA navy from crossing the Taiwan strait.
- Hasten and expand security assistance to Taiwan to improve its “porcupine strategy.”
- Quicken the adoption of civilian or dual-use technology that can solve crucial operational problems.
- Modernize and reduce the bureaucracy to hasten procurement.
- Work with US allies in procuring crucial or proven technologies for the military.