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War On the Rocks: 烏克蘭給台灣上的一課

作者/Author(s): Jeffery W. Hornung 

原文來源/Source: War on the Rocks (Texas National Security Review) 

日期/Date: 03/17/2022 

主題/Key Topics: Defense, Grand Strategy 

摘要:
儘管俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭並不意味著中國即將入侵台灣，但台灣及其最親密的盟友必須提前做好準備，以防止中國的成功和人道主義危機。 

避免中國突襲： 
  • 台灣、美國及其盟國可以持續監控解放軍的活動，以預測中國的入侵，並共享關鍵情報以準備軍事和後勤支持。 
做好準備面對小衝突的準備： 
  • 將民族主義台灣人訓練成國土防衛部隊，如果解放軍進入台灣海岸，就可以伏擊他們，阻止他們向台北進軍。 
  • 台灣適合進行城市戰，可以在那裏藏匿物資，也可以利用橋樑或狹窄通道處阻擋解放軍。 
  • 開始儲備大量具有不對稱能力的廉價短程防禦武器。 
迅速和集中的經濟應對措施： 
  • 各國可能不願意向台灣提供直接的軍事援助，提供間接援助也具有挑戰性。然而，對中國進行經濟制裁是可行的，由於中國在全球範圍內的高度相互依存性，制裁中國將使其經濟遭到破壞。 
  • 政府可以通過拒絕中國公民進入其國家並說服企業終止與中國企業的關係來孤立中國。 
為人道主義危機做好準備： 
  • 烏克蘭難民可以通過陸路離開該國前往鄰國，但對台灣來說，這是不可能的。這導致了在衝突期間疏散非戰鬥人員和提供人道主義援助的挑戰。 
  • 儘早存放重要物資、彈藥和救援物資。 
  • 與美國和台灣的親密可靠盟友—日本—討論和協調難民疏散協議。 
中國日益增長的侵略性促使印太國家和美國的親密盟友重新考慮他們在台灣問題上的立場。目前對中國持偏見或中立的國家可能會選擇與美國站在一起，以保護其國家利益。 
Summary: 
Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine does not translate to imminent China’s invasion of Taiwan, Taiwan and its closest allies must prepare beforehand to prevent China’s success and humanitarian crisis. 
 
Taking away China’s element of surprise:  
  • Taiwan, the US and its allies can constantly monitor PLA’s activity to anticipate Chinese invasion and share critical intelligence to prepare military and logistical support. 
Ready for small skirmishes: 
  • Train nationalistic Taiwanese into territorial defense forces to ambush PLA if they make it to Taiwanese shores to stop their advance to Taipei. 
  • Taiwan is suitable for urban warfare where supplies can be stashed, and PLA can be obstructed at bridges or narrow pathways.  
  • Start stockpiling a large number of cheap short-ranged defensive armaments with asymmetric capabilities. 
A Rapid and Collective Economic Response 
  • Countries may be reluctant to provide direct military assistance to Taiwan, and it is challenging to provide indirect assistance. However, coordinated economic sanctions on China are feasible and will decimate the Chinese economy due to its high global interdependence. 
  • Governments can isolate China by denying the entry of China citizens into their countries and persuading corporations to end their relations with Chinese businesses. 
Preparing for a humanitarian crisis 
  • Ukrainian refugees can leave the country by land to neighboring countries, but it is impossible for Taiwan. This leads to challenges in evacuating non-combatants during conflict and delivering humanitarian assistance.  
  • Stash critical supplies, ammunition, and relief goods early. 
  • Discuss and coordinate refugee evacuation protocols with Japan, a close and reliable ally of the US and Taiwan. 
China’s increasing aggression prompted Indo-Pacific countries and close US allies to reconsider their stance on the Taiwan issue. Current China-biased or neutral countries may choose to stand with the US to protect their national interest. 
 
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