作者/Author(s): Andrew J. Nathan
原文來源/Source: 《外交事務》 Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 06/23/2022
主題/Key Topics: Grand Strategy
摘要：
習近平將統一台灣視為他的政績，而中國目前因為美國盤據於烏克蘭而看到機會，但中國將繼續保持戰略耐心，等待台灣投降，而不是立即出擊，失去一切。
而台灣在歷史、經濟、政治和軍事都具有特別意義，因此中國希望阻止任何大國控制台灣。2016年之前，台灣在外交上孤立、軍事力量相對薄弱、經濟也高度依賴中國的情況下，中國有機會不用武力制服台灣。儘管中國的國力一時達到頂峰，並有強制統一的機會，但因為大多數台灣人現在不贊成統一所以中國失去其機會了，同時中國正處於社會經濟衰退期，而且有一個「反制中國聯盟」主張和平的台灣海峽。
另一方面，中國似乎在台灣問題上展現出其戰略耐心：
- 中國戰略家認為他們尚未與西方國家一樣將等待其衰落。
- 中國在其他事件中表現出耐心，例如在南海和釣魚台諸島使用薩拉米香腸戰術(Salami tactics)。
- 中國利用長期的外交、經濟和軍事「灰色地帶戰法」來提高其影響力，並使其他國家政府與中國的利益保持一致。
- 戰爭成本、台灣的地緣優勢、對解放軍可操作性的懷疑以及美國的干預承諾意味著中國可能不會訴諸強制統一。
中國可以在對台戰爭中取得勝利，但勝利是很難持續的，甚至可能適得其反。然而，台灣人不應該自滿，必須準備好應對中國的碾壓戰略。
Summary:
Although Xi Jinping places reunification with Taiwan as his legacy and China currently has an opportunity while the US is occupied in Ukraine, China will continue its strategic patience to wait for Taiwan's surrender than strike immediately and lose everything.
China hopes to stop any powers from controlling Taiwan due to its historical, economic, political, and military significance. China had the opportunity to subdue Taiwan without force when Taiwan was diplomatically isolated, militarily weak, and economically dependent on China before 2016. Despite China reaching its peak in national strength momentarily and having the opportunity for forced reunification, China blew its chances as most Taiwanese now do not favor reunification, China is in a period of socioeconomic decline, and there is an anti-China coalition that advocates a peaceful Taiwan strait.
- Chinese strategists do not think they are on par with the West yet and will wait for its decline.
- China had demonstrated patience in other incidents, such as using salami-slicing tactics in the South China Sea and Senkaku Islands.
- China had demonstrated patience in other incidents, such as using salami-slicing tactics in the South China Sea and Senkaku Islands.
- The cost of war, Taiwan's geographical advantage, doubts about the operability of the PLA, and the US's commitment to intervene means China may not resort to forced reunification.
China can secure a victory in the war against Taiwan, but the victory is unsustainable and may even backfire on itself. However, the Taiwanese should not be complacent and must prepare against China's grinding down strategy.