作者/Author(s): Franz-Stefan Gady 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 12/06/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Future of War, Drone Warfare

摘要：

俄烏危機至今已近兩年，戰況陷入了僵局。原因有幾個，戰爭性質不斷變化、無人機的廣泛應用，以及監視科技的進步，讓烏克蘭很難完全收復失土。監視技術的進步，讓雙方部隊很難集結推進，任何一方都可能隨時發起進攻。換句話說，俄烏雙方能掌握敵方的前線和後勤動向，傳統的地面進攻技術已經逐漸失效。不過，雙方仍可採用滲透戰術推進，讓敵人無法發現自家部隊的行動。 

  • 為了不被發現，烏克蘭部隊通常會選擇在黎明前或傍晚發動攻擊。此時環境較暗，俄軍的無人機操作員很難發現他們。雖然俄軍有配備紅外線鏡頭無人機，可以在黑暗中觀測，但這種無人機成本很高，較少被拿出來使用。
  • 烏克蘭部隊可以在黑暗中潛入俄軍戰壕，但他們需要極強的紀律性、專注力和體能來持續反擊，直到他們可以向前推進或得到增援為止。 
  • 地形的條件可以促成或阻礙部隊攻擊。第一人稱視角（FPV）無人機通常在較高的高度運行，保持與地面操作員的穩定通訊。FPV 無人機如果要在較低的地面進行攻擊，需要架設額外的通信中繼站，這種做法會變相增加後勤和人員負擔。 
  • 天氣也會影響戰場條件。例如無人機就無法在惡劣天氣或極端氣溫下運作。而且惡劣的天氣條件會影響無人機監視，部隊無法有效地進行炮擊。雖然部隊在惡劣天氣沒有無人機監視的情況下會更方便移動，但泥濘的地面也是很麻煩的，樹木也很難有效掩護前進部隊。 
  • 目前，俄烏雙方都還在探索技術，適應電子戰，以制止或減少對方探測部隊車輛的能力。
Summary: 
Ukraine and Russia entered a stalemate after nearly two years into the Ukrainian Crisis for several reasons. The changing character of warfare, especially in the era of pervasive surveillance contributed by the wide use of drones and other technologies, stops Ukraine from further liberating its territory. It also hinders troops from both sides from amassing and advancing due to easier detection, which could follow up with counterattacks by either side, meaning classical ground attack tactics are obsolete if the adversary can see everything on and behind the frontlines. However, both sides can still advance with infiltration tactics and deny foes the ability to detect troops' movements. 
  • To avoid detection, Ukrainian troops would choose to attack pre-dawn or late evening because the environment is darker, making it harder for drone operators to detect attackers. Although the Russians have infrared camera-equipped drones that can see in the dark, they are costlier and, thus, less used. 
  • Ukrainian troops can infiltrate Russian trenches in the dark, but they need extreme discipline, focus, and physical fitness to sustain counterattacks until they can move forward or receive reinforcements. 
  • The conditions of the physical terrain can enable or hinder an attack. First-person view (FPV) drones usually operate at a higher altitude to maintain stable communication with the ground operator. FPV drones need extra communication relays at a lower ground to conduct attacks, increasing the logistical and staffing burden. 
  • The weather also affects the battlefield conditions. Drones cannot operate in poor weather or extreme temperatures. Since poor weather conditions hamper drone surveillance, troops cannot effectively conduct artillery strikes. Although troops can move better with lower drone coverage, the muddy ground can hamper troop movements, and fewer trees conceal the troops.
  • Both sides also explore technological innovations and adaption in electronic warfare to stop or reduce the other side's capability to detect troops and vehicles. 
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