作者/Author(s): Wang Jisi 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/23/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: US-China Relations, Strategic Competition


差異(續) 

  • 蘇聯實行自我封閉，交流也僅限於高級官員間。而中國則提倡開放，非常歡迎美國任何人進行交流與合作。因此，蘇聯很難影響對手的國內政治，但中國可以。相比之下，美中之間的競爭是多層次的，美中兩國的公眾和決策者之間存在利益衝突。
  • 當前的全球環境早已不同於冷戰。全球化慢慢瓦解了冷戰時期的大國緊張關係，減少地區衝突。然˙而，由經濟保護主義、政治民粹主義和民族主義引發的反全球化浪潮，加上日益嚴峻的全球挑戰，將為戰略競爭創造更具挑戰性的環境。
  • 在美蘇冷戰期間，政府之間有直接的溝通，有效避免超級大國之間的直接衝突。然而，美中之間缺乏強有力的危機預防和管理機制。直到近期才商議恢復軍事交流。 
比冷戰更糟糕? 
  • 如果美中兩國不能及時控制競爭，可能會導致比冷戰更糟糕的局面。雙方的一些假設是不切實際或宿命論等說法，例如政治和文化傳統的差異，以及國際競爭本質上是零和的假設。然而，美中兩國可以採取一些措施來避免災難。 
  1. 美中兩國的經濟必須保持緊密連結。
  2. 緩和台灣問題的緊張局勢。 
  3. 在軍隊和政府領導人之間建立危機預防和管理機制。 
  4. 加強在健康和氣候等全球問題上的合作。 
 
 
Summary: 
The Differences (Continued) 
  • Unlike the Soviet Union, which practiced self-isolation and limited exchanges only to high-level officials, China promoted openness and welcomed cooperation and exchanges with anyone in the US. Consequently, the Soviet Union could hardly influence its rivals' domestic politics and vice versa. In contrast, the US-China competition is multi-tiered, with conflicting interests between the public and decision-makers of both the US and China. 
  • The current global environment is different from the previous Cold War. Globalization slowly defrosted great power tensions during the Cold War and reduced regional conflict. However, an anti-globalization wave fueled by economic protectionism, political populism, and ethnic nationalism, coupled with growing global challenges, created a more challenging environment for strategic competition. 
  • There was direct communication between governments during the US-Soviet Cold War, which prevented a direct conflict between the superpowers. However, there was a lack of robust crisis prevention and management mechanisms between the US and China until the resumption of military communications recently. 
Worse than a Cold War? 
  • If the US and China do not control their competition in time, it may result in a situation worse than a Cold War. Some assumptions from both actors that are unrealistic and fatalistic are the differences in political and cultural traditions and the assumption that international competition is essentially zero-sum. Yet, there are steps that the US and China can take to avoid disaster. ​​​​​​​
  1. The US and Chinese economies must remain deeply intertwined. 
  2. Defuse tension over Taiwan. 
  3. Establish crisis prevention and management mechanisms between the militaries and government leaders. 
  4. Enhance cooperation on global issues such as health and climate.
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