作者/Author(s): John V.C. Nye and Marla Snegovaya
網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date: 11/13/2023
關鍵字/Keywords: Economic Sanctions, Sanctions Busting
摘要：
西方的「地獄制裁」有效減少了俄羅斯的預算收入，但並未阻止俄羅斯對烏克蘭的行動。事實上，俄羅斯的收入在2022年有增加，代表莫斯科成功地繞過西方制裁，從石油波動的價格中撈到油水。如果這種狀況持續下去，俄羅斯不僅可以維持在烏克蘭的行動，還可以超越西方給予烏克蘭的承諾。雖然西方的制裁努力值得稱讚，但這並沒有造成俄羅斯無法克服的困難，新的行動只會強化目前手段的無效性。不過，只要加以改進，西方就能削弱俄羅斯金援戰爭的能力。
- 2010 年代初，西方對伊朗能源產品實施全面貿易禁令，加劇了伊朗經濟的不穩定和民眾的不滿情緒。成功促使伊朗政權在數年後向國際社會讓步。
- 但與伊朗不同的是，西方國家對俄羅斯的制裁具有懲罰性，而且有允許俄羅斯部分經濟部門進行對外貿易，避免對某些西方行業造成不便。
- 對俄羅斯實施石油價格上限的目的，是要減少俄羅斯能源收入，並將俄羅斯石油留在市場上，避免破壞全球能源市場穩定。然而，俄羅斯利用未參與制裁的國家、保險、運輸和貿易迴避價格限制，使西方的制裁失去作用。
- 而且中東的衝突、對沒有與西方體系聯繫之國家缺乏管轄權，還有對化石燃料與時俱增的需求，都導致西方難以實施更嚴厲的措施。
- 雖然西方的出口管制限制了俄羅斯採購西方產品的能力，但卻幫助俄羅斯持有美元和歐元儲備，讓盧布匯率保持穩定。
- 此外，中俄緊密的貿易關係和走私，讓俄羅斯能獲得經濟和戰爭所需的必要物品。西方因為缺乏對俄羅斯金融體系的控制和介入機制，對此問題完全束手無策。
- 西方可以試著降低油價，減少俄羅斯的收入。然而，拜登政府沒有建設新的能源基礎設施或放寬環境立法限制，使得目前的石油價格趨於穩定，俄羅斯能夠持續獲利。
- 西方也可以對沒有替代品的製造工具實施出口管制，例如體積很大，難以走私的數控機床。
The West's "sanctions from hell" decreased Russian budget revenues, but it did not stop Russia's operation in Ukraine. In fact, Russia's oil revenue increased in 2022 after Moscow successfully bypassed Western sanctions and was assisted by favorable oil price dynamics. If the situation persists, not only can Russia sustain its operations in Ukraine, but it can also outlast Western commitment to Ukraine as cracks among the West appear. While the West's sanctions effort is commendable, it did not present unbeatable difficulties for Russia, and new actions only reinforce ineffective current instruments. However, with improvements, the West could diminish Russia's capability to fund its war.
- The West implemented a comprehensive trade ban on Iranian energy products in the early 2010s, fueling economic instability and discontent among Iranian citizens. This prompted the regime to concede to the international community years later.
- Unlike Iran, however, the sanctions on Russia are punitive while granting trade with parts of the Russian economy to avoid inconvenience in some Western industries.
- The price cap on Russian oil aims to reduce Russia's energy revenues while keeping Russian oil in the market to avoid destabilizing global energy markets. However, Russia circumvented the price cap by relying on non-sanctions-compliant countries for insurance, transport, and trade, rendering Western leverage useless.
- Further, the conflict in the Middle East, the lack of jurisdiction over companies without connections to Western systems, and the increasing demand for fossil fuels make it harder for the West to implement harsher measures.
- Although Western export controls limited Russia's ability to procure Western goods and products, they helped Russia keep its dollar and Euro reserve, stabilizing the Ruble.
- Further, stronger trade ties with China and smuggling allowed Russia to receive necessary items for its economy and war. The West had its hands tied because it lacked the control or intervening mechanism on Russian financial systems.
- The West could try to lower oil prices to hurt Russian revenues. However, Biden's administration avoided building new energy infrastructure or relaxing environmental legislation, which keeps the current oil price afloat and allows Russia to profit from oil continuously.
- The West could also include export controls on Western-made tools that do not have non-Western substitutes, such as CNC machine tools, which are large and hard to smuggle.