作者/Author(s): Joe Sullivan 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: November 2, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Dollar Hegemony, BRICS, Finance

摘要：

金磚國家的擴大與其新的流通貨幣構想，加快了這些國家去美元化的進程。這將增加金磚國家（現在是BRICS+）的經濟戰略工具。 
 

BRICS+的經濟工具 

  • BRICS+包含埃及、衣索比亞和沙烏地阿拉伯，他們控制蘇伊士運河，並對周邊國家有極大影響力。由於蘇伊士運河對全球貿易和能源至關重要，因此這三國的加入，為BRICS+帶來了極有利的全球貿易槓桿籌碼。 
  • 因為沙烏地阿拉伯的加入，BRICS+現在持有超過1兆美元的美國國債，這也代表著BRICS+將有更多可以影響國家或非國家行為體的地緣政治影響力。 
  • BRICS+也擁有控制更大份額的重要物資之能力，例如化石燃料與重要礦產。 

 

懷疑和前景 

  • 眾所周知，印度和中國邊境存在領土爭端。然而，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的歷史（1980年代兩伊戰爭）表明，雖然彼此處於戰爭狀態，但敵對對手仍然可以就共同的經濟利益開展合作。 
  • 中國在BRICS+中的相對經濟規模正在縮小，經濟增長也放緩，這會讓該組織更能夠達到平衡。 
  • 自川普執政以來，美國一直在放棄美元霸權或探索其可能性，減少了BRICS+去美元化道路上的阻礙。 
  1. 川普希望弱勢美元能夠減少貿易逆差。
  2. 美國參議院最近確認由支持剝奪美元霸權的伯恩斯坦為經濟顧問委員會主席。 
  • BRICS+成員開始探索實現BRICS+貨幣的技術條件，可能接受每個成員的本國貨幣進行貿易，減少美元在全球經濟中的角色。 

 

美元的未來 

  • 去美元化運動只是降低美元在全球的重要性，但並不會完全放棄美元，類似於19世紀的英鎊。 
  • 雖然美元還是佔了很大部分的份額，但其角色與影響力減少後，將形成一種新的國際貨幣無政府態勢。 
 

Summary: 

The expansion of BRICS and the conception of a new BRICS currency drive faster de-dollarization, which may expand the economic instruments of BRICS (now BRICS+). 
The Economic Arsenals of BRICS+ 

  • BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia, which controls or influences the Suez Canal and neighboring countries. Since the Suez Canal is important for global trade and energy, it gives BRICS+ strong global trade leverage. 
  • By admitting Saudi Arabia, BRICS+ now has more than $1 trillion in US treasury bonds, giving it more geopolitical power to influence state and non-state actors. 
  • BRICS+ also controls a larger share of commodities, especially fossil fuels and critical minerals. 
Skepticisms and Prospects 
  • India and China are known to have territorial disputes at their borders. Yet, the history of OPEC (Iran and Iraq Wars in the 1980s) shows rivals can cooperate on shared economic interests despite being at war with each other. 
  • China's shrinking relative economic size in the BRICS+ and slowing economic growth make the grouping more balanced. 
  • The US has been abdicating its US dollar hegemony or exploring its possibility since Trump's administration, reducing roadblocks to BRICS+ de-dollarization goals.  ​​​​​​​
  1. Trump hopes a weaker dollar can reduce the trade deficit.  
  2. The US Senate had recently confirmed Bernstein, who favors dethroning US dollar hegemony, as the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. ​​​​​​​
  • BRICS+ members are starting to explore the technical conditions for realizing the BRICS+ currency and may accept each member's own currencies for trade, reducing the dollar's role in the global economy. 
The Future of the US Dollars 
  • The de-dollarization campaign will only reduce the US dollar's global importance without making it obsolete, similar to the British Pound in the 19th century. 
  • The reduced role of the US dollar will form a new monetary anarchy even though it retains its large share. 
 
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