作者/Author(s): Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Jaehyun Han, and Jennifer Jun 

網站來源/Source: The China Power Project, CSIS 

日期/Date: 10/11/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Military, Civil-Military Fusion, Logistics 

摘要：

因為中國電動汽車價格低廉，全球對其需求大增，中國汽車製造商不得不訂購更多的滾裝船，才能將中國製電動汽車運往更遙遠的市場。雖然滾裝船本身無害，但中國軍事戰略計畫人員希望利用滾裝船潛力，增強中國人民解放軍的能力。 


中國對滾裝船需求日增 
  • 汽車製造商通常使用貨櫃貨運來運輸汽車。但是，滾裝船就像現代多層停車場一樣，汽車可以通過坡道登上船，並且排列整齊。目前現有最大的滾裝船可運輸約 9,000 輛汽車。
  • 目前，中國公司擁有全球約七分之一的滾裝船，但它們只在一定的區域範圍內運營。為了滿足全球對中國汽車的需求，中國公司需要擴大其滾裝船隊。幸運的是，中國完全有能力建造滾裝船。 
  • 中國造船廠生產了全球近一半的商用船舶（按噸位計算），目前的船舶訂單數量顯示，造船廠的訂單量持續增加。 
  • 衛星圖像顯示，這些船廠正在迅速建造更大規模的滾裝船。 
  • 雖然有些船隻是為外國買家訂購的，但大多數是由中國公司所訂購，因此船隻將留在中國。此外，中國汽車製造商和造船廠之間也有合併。 
滾裝船的雙重用途 
  • 滾裝船產量的增加是為了商業用途，但中國人民解放軍暗示將使用這些船舶支持軍事行動。
  • 雖然中國在現代化解放軍方面已付出值得稱讚的大量努力，但其缺乏足夠的軍事硬體，無法將部隊和裝備運送到關鍵戰區，如果他們希望對台灣進行大規模聯合島嶼作戰，那麼這會是個關鍵問題。
  • 民用滾裝船隻可以彌補解放軍的不足。解放軍與民用船舶製造商合作，確保滾裝船符合國防要求，並在民用滾裝船的支持下進行了兩棲攻擊演習。 
  • 然而，民用滾裝船速度慢，容易成為攻擊目標，而且其規格可能會限制可裝載的軍事裝備類型。 
  • 解放軍直接與造船廠合作，對滾裝船進行改裝，確保船隻符合軍事要求。 
  • 中國還通過了《國防動員法》，以確保民用船隻可用於支持軍事和國家安全需求。 
雖然大部分滾裝船純粹用於商業用途，但中國明確表示，這些船只是可以彌補解放軍不足的重要資產。隨著中國造船廠建造更多的滾裝船，分析人士應關注解放軍如何將其納入規劃和能力。 

Summary: 
Global demand for affordable Chinese electric vehicles skyrocketed, forcing Chinese automakers to order more roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ships to ship their products to faraway markets. While ro-ro ships are harmless, Chinese military planners plan to harness their potential to enhance the PLA's capabilities. 

Increasing Demand for Chinese Ro-Ros 
  • Automakers usually use container freights to transport vehicles. However, ro-ro ships allow cars to board vessels designed like a multi-level parking garage via a ramp. The largest ro-ro ship available can transport around 9,000 cars. 
  • Currently, Chinese companies own around 1/7 of global ro-ro ships, and they only operate regionally. To meet the global demand for Chinese cars, Chinese companies need to expand their fleets of ro-ros. Luckily, China is well-positioned to build the ships. 
  • Chinese shipyards produce almost half of the world's commercial vessels (by tonnage), and current ship order books show that the shipyards will have increased orders. 
  • Satellite imagery shows that these shipyards are rapidly building the ro-ros at a larger scale. 
  • Although some ships are for foreign buyers, Chinese companies ordered most of them and, therefore, will remain in China. There are also mergers between Chinese automakers and shipyards. 
The Dual-Use Applications of Ro-Ros 
  • The increased production of ro-ros is for commercial uses, but the PLA hinted to use the ships to support military operations. 
  • Although China made applaudable efforts in modernizing the PLA, it lacks sufficient military hardware to transport troops and equipment to key theaters, especially if they wish to conduct a large-scale joint island operation against Taiwan. 
  • Civilian ro-ros can address the PLA's shortcomings. The PLA worked with civilian ship makers to ensure the ro-ros met national defense requirements, and it conducted amphibious assault exercises with civilian ro-ros as support. 
  • Yet, civilian ro-ros would be easy targets due to their slow speed, and their specifications may limit the type of military equipment that could be loaded into the ship. 
  • The PLA worked directly with shipbuilders to retrofit the ro-ros and ensure the ships met military requirements. 
  • China also passed the National Defense Transportation Law to ensure civilian vessels are available to support the military and national security needs. 
Although most of the ro-ros are purely for commercial uses, China indicated clearly that these vessels are important assets that can bridge the PLA's shortcomings. Analysts should monitor how the PLA may incorporate them into its planning and capabilities as Chinese shipyards build more ro-ros. 
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