作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/26/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Economy, Sanctions 

摘要：

G7和歐盟正在針對俄羅斯油價上限商議新措施，希望藉此阻止俄烏戰爭繼續打下去。油價上限成功地削弱了俄羅斯的財政狀況，但俄羅斯找到了規避油價上限的方法，導致此措施失效。

制裁體制成功了嗎？ 

  • 西方成功地團結理念相近的國家一同反對俄羅斯暴行。 
  • 制裁成功地削減了俄羅斯的石油利潤，進一步限制俄羅斯花錢打仗的能力。 
  • 油價上限成功地阻止了油價飆升。 
  • 制裁提高了俄羅斯石油潛在消費者的議價能力。由於保險費提高和距離買家更遠，俄羅斯石油的銷售成本增加了。 
加強制裁 
  • 西方國家應對更多的公司進行嚴格審查，以加強制裁的執行力度。然而，西方國家缺乏時間、資金和訓練有素的官員來執行制裁，而且制裁措施並未影響到俄羅斯的石油船隊。 
  • 西方國家可以強制那些通過西方重要港灣的船隻，必須購買適當的責任保險。然而，俄羅斯船只利用太平洋、北極港口以及不是西方控制的要道通過，有效規避西方國家規範。 
  • 西方可以對俄羅斯石油公司實施制裁，並對幫助俄羅斯規避價格上限的國際公司實施二級制裁。然而，俄羅斯是全球主要的石油供應國，太大範圍的制裁與圍堵俄羅斯石油交易，可能會對全球經濟和跨大西洋制裁造成嚴重破壞。
  • 對於西方來說，最好的方式是逐漸削弱俄羅斯的能源部門，因為俄羅斯油氣田正在枯竭，而開發新的能源來源需要西方的協助。
Summary：
The G7 and EU are discussing new measures for the Russian oil price cap to stop the Russo-Ukraine War. The price cap succeeded in diminishing Russia's finances, but Russia found ways to circumvent the price cap, making the measure ineffective. 

Is the sanctions regime successful? 
  • The West successfully united like-minded countries in objecting to Russia's atrocity. 
  • The sanctions successfully cut Russia's oil profit, thus curtailing Russia's ability to finance the war. 
  • The price cap manages to stop the oil price from skyrocketing. 
  • The sanctions gave potential Russian oil consumers higher bargaining power. The costs of selling Russian oil have increased due to higher insurance premiums and longer distances to buyers. 
Bypassing the Price Cap 
  • Russia decreased its reliance on the West by completing Nord Stream 2 without the assistance of Western companies. It also bought a massive sanction-proof oil fleet, reducing the need for Western ships to transport oil and putting most of the Russian oil out of reach of the price cap. 
  • Russia learned from North Korea in shrouding the location of its tankers, limiting Western governments' ability to track the ships and identify sanctions circumvention. 
  • Russia diverted oil trade to non-sanctioning countries such as China, India, and Turkey.  
Improving the Sanctions 
  • The West should increase sanctions enforcement by scrutinizing their firms. However, the West lacked time, money, and trained officials to enforce sanctions, and the measure did not affect the Russian oil fleet. 
  • The West can force ships transitting through Western maritime chokepoints to have proper liability insurance. However, Russian ships can use their Pacific and Arctic ports to bypass Western chokepoints and pass through non-Western maritime chokepoints that would not comply with the West. 
  • The West can enforce sanctions on Russian oil firms and secondary sanctions on international firms that help Russia evade the price cap. However, these sanctions may cause serious damage to the global economy and transatlantic sanctions since Russia is a major global oil supplier.
  • The best way for the West is to dry up Russia's energy sector slowly because its hydrocarbon fields are depleting, and developing new sources requires Western assistance. 
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